Bryce Harper has been picked by Sports Illustrated as the Lebron James of baseball. He’s graduated high school 2 years early so he can play junior college baseball and be eligible for the 2010 draft. Most have agreed he’s the consensus number 1 pick in that draft. Come on now fellas- this kid is 16 year old.

There’s no argument that Bryce Harper is talented. There’s no argument his body is much more powerful and mature than those of other 16-year-olds. There’s no argument that one day he could be a super star. The argument I have is what has this kid done to warrant the top pick in the draft next year? Sure, he hit .500 in high school, and he hit the longest home run (with a metal bat) at the Trop in Tampa. Sure he’s probably the best 16 year old in the country hands down- but I really don’t think the Washington Nationals should be taking a should be junior in high school with the first pick. The fact he’s being allowed to do this sets a really dangerous precedent for Major League baseball because now a lot of kids are going to feel they’re ready for professional baseball when they aren’t. I don’t know Bryce Harper, so I don’t know if he’s mentally prepared for the rigors of the minor leagues, but I mean really- baseball is a pretty difficult sport to succeed and can someone whose never seen failure at levels he’s better than the competition, handle the failures pro baseball is going to bring? Is he going to be okay when he goes 0-25? Makes a couple errors and watches crowds turn on him? It’s all roses right now for the phenom, but can he handle the thorns?

I was able to watch Bryce play a couple times over of the summer, and neither time did I come away thinking- WOW! The kid again- is talented, but there’s such a different learning curve for baseball players than football and basketball players. Bryce beat up on high school pitching. Most pro prospects can do that. Bryce took out 16 and 17 year old pitching in elite amateur tournaments all over the country. Again most talented kids can. Bryce will probably beat up junior college pitching which isn’t that much better than high school pitching, but is he going to handle professional pitching? There’s a FINE line between professional and non professional pitchers and I’m sorry- but I’m not convinced that if I’m the GM of a professional team that’s in dire need of almost ready prospects that I risk it all on this kid. With Scott Boras as his agent, he’s obviously going to get a package around what Stephen Strasburg got, and is the risk worth the reward? Maybe he turns into Joe Mauer, but at 16- how can you be so sure? How many 16, 17, 18 year old kids flame out every year? How many don’t get better? How many get hurt? The answer is not one I can answer in terms of numbers because the number is way to large for me to speculate. What I can speculate on, is that this kid is not a sure thing. There isn’t ONE baseball player in this country looking to make it big that should be considered a sure thing. Baseball is different than every other sport out there and frankly- you never know. Some kids just don’t develop no matter how good they are.

If I’m Mike Rizzo of the Washington Nationals and I have the first pick, I definitely do NOT draft Bryce Harper. My organization needs talent that’s gonna be able to help me within 2 years- not 4. If they continue to draft high school kids with they’re top picks, it’s going to be tougher and tougher to build a tip top organization because again- alot of high school kids do not pan out so why give Harper that kind of money? I guess in 3 or 4 years we’ll find out if it was a smart or dumb move no matter how the saga plays out, but people need to cool the hype on a 16-year-old and let the kid be just that…a kid for one more year.