Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Kevin Millwood head to Chicago?
A new rumor has surfaced regarding the inevitable trade of Milton Bradley between the Rangers and Cubs that would send Kevin Millwood to Chicago and Aaron Miles to Arlington along with Bradley. The rumor is being reported here, and as of now is not anything more than speculation.
Let’s take a look at the proposed deal from a production standpoint. Kevin Millwood was one of the cogs in the Braves’ starting rotation in the late 90s, including a phenomenal 1999 campaign. Since 2006, Millwood has been with the Rangers, and as you might expect from an aging pitcher in a hitter’s park, his fantasy stats haven’t been all that impressive (48-46, 4.57 ERA, 1.452 WHIP, 528 Ks). His strikeouts have been nice, but his BB% climbing above 3% has made his WHIP soar. Millwood has been durable, averaging 31 starts and 189 innings a year while in Texas.
Now, saying all of this might make Cubs fans shy away from an aging pitcher in decline. But, in real life value, Millwood is still better than any other players the Cubs have been linked to, which includes Pat Burrell, Luis Castillo, and Vernon Wells. It’s important to look at Millwood’s fielding independent statistics. His FIP (set to same scale as ERA) has bounced around from the high 3s to the high 4s in his years with the Rangers. His tRA has been in the mid-5s the past 3 seasons. To put those numbers in context, Zack Greinke led the majors in FIP with a 2.33 and a 2.81 tRA. Millwood had a 2.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) last season and has had WARs in the 2.5-3.5 range for the past three seasons, which made him more valuable than Rich Harden and slightly less valuable than Randy Wells in 2009.
Kevin Millwood would be a great return considering the situation of Milton Bradley’s troubles, and Aaron Miles overall inability to play baseball well. In terms of fantasy baseball, Millwood is good only if you have a deep league or for playing matchups. In real life baseball, Millwood is a good 4th or 5th starter.
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My name is Matt Milner. I am currently a student majoring in Anthropology, hopefully completing my bachelor's degree in the next year. As for baseball, I have been a follower of the game for years. I am an avid Cubs fan, as all the writers on this site ar...[Continue Reading]
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Compared to the other horrible potential other moves the team could make (Like Vernon Wells, Gary Matthews Jr., or Luis Castillo), this move looks sterling by comparison.
I might be absolutely crazy, but I’d still rather have Bradley unless there’s a follow up move to sign an outfielder.
Trading Bradley for Millwood is fine- but whose playing right and center next year? And if the answer is Sam Fuld, Reed Johnson, and Kosuke….well…puke might be an appropriate response to that thought.
Hendry is dead set on moving Bradley. Millwood is the best he’s going to get, especially considering Miles could be included.
This move and the way the outfield is set up don’t really relate to each other. Bradley’s gone either way; we may as well get the best we can for him and worry about the rest of the holes afterward.
That strategy is really risky though. You move Bradley without a contingency plan and all of a sudden the offense is depleted. There flat out has to be a plan B if you make this trade- I don’t see the point in destroying the offense for an aging pitcher. However, if Hendry is 100% committed to dealing him- I’d rather have Millwood over every other rumor that’s been thrown out there.
Moving Bradley doesn’t really destroy the offense, but it does leave a hole in CF. Bradley wasn’t exactly a cog in the 2009 offensive (non) machine. The offense will be fine with good years out of Soriano and Soto, plus a full season out of Ramirez. The Cubs just need someone who is either going to catch everything in CF and have an average bat, or someone who is going to catch most things in CF with a decent bat. Moving Fukudome back to RF is a must. He’s a top defender in RF.
As much as Hendry gets crap for doing dumb things at times, I can’t say that not having a plan is one of those things. I guarantee he has a plan…there’s no guarantee that it’s a good plan, but a plan nonetheless.
The best part about this potential deal would not be obtaining a solid starter in Kevin Millwood, nor would it be getting rid of the plague that is Milton Bradley. No…the greatest result if this trade were to go down would be shipping off the worst Chicago Cub since Felix Heredia; AARON MILES! Good riddance!
Ha- Well played Matt. Well played.
Also if we get Millwood it allows the Cubs to use either Wells, Gorzelanny, or Marshall as trade bait to fill some holes.