The Cy Young award winners were announced this week, and as many predicted Zack Greinke won in the AL and Tim Lincecum won in the NL.

This shows some forward thinking by the BBWAA, who usually determine the winner of this award by the number of wins and losses a pitcher has and their ERA. Chris Carpenter came in a close 2nd place, losing out by only 6 points.

The reason the vote was so close was that Carpenter had a better record and ERA (17-4, 2.24) than Lincecum (15-7, 2.48). The problem with using these statistics to determine anything is that they are very dependent upon the teams around the pitchers. Defense and team batting factor in too much with these statistics.

Lincecum is a strikeout machine, striking out more than 100 more batters than Carpenter did. Strikeouts are one of the few things completely under a pitcher’s control. A pitcher who strikes out more batters is more valuable because the chance for error is next to nothing (aside from the occasional dropped 3rd strike). DIPS or Defense Independent Pitching Statistics try to analyze performance based on the rates of things that pitchers can control, like strikeouts, walks, and the rates of different kinds of batted balls. Two of the most trusted of these statistics are tRA and FIP. While Carpenter was better in terms of ERA, Lincecum was better in terms of both tRA and FIP.

Lincecum also bested Carpenter in WAR, which is a value statistic, meaning he was the most valuable pitcher in the NL.

This is a good day for baseball awards, and a step in the right direction for the proper analysis of player performance. The next test for the BBWAA is the MVP. We’ll see if they do as well making that decision.