Player Prediction: Zack Greinke


By Brett Rosin

Thursday, November 5, 2009  

Will Zach Greinke be the Same Fantasy Stud in 2010?

Fantasy owners all across the country were selecting Greinke in the middle rounds, and in some drafts fell to the late rounds. Obviously he was their teams best pitcher in 2009 unless they had Tim Lincecum as well. The question on everyone’s mind is: How good is he going to be next year and where to draft him? I know it’s REAL early to start talking fantasy baseball, but in retrospect, serious owners should NEVER stop thinking about fantasy baseball.

Here is some of my input on what to do with this guy when your going through your draft.

I believe that Zach Greinke will be just as good next year and down the line for fantasy owners. He’s got such a powerful arm (94-97 on good days) and he really started commanding a real good feel for 2 different kinds of breaking balls (73-87). He’s one of the few guys that can combine power and finesse and completely dominate lineups with his arsenal. He can strike you out, he can make you put terrible swings on the ball, and he’s real tough to square up. So right there- you’re talking about several fantasy stats. Strike outs, WHIP, ERA, BAA (batting average against for leagues that have it), and of course Wins. It’s hard to predict wins because of the variables that can play against that stat, but if you can get the rest of the categories down, your pitching staff will be all that much better. Another thing to think about is mechanics. I broke them down, and I didn’t see anything to alarm drafters in that regard. So everyone should feel good about taking him as a fantasy ace.

Should he be taken above Halladay and Johan? That’s a tough question to answer because it really depends on the kind of league the owner is in as well as what kind of stats are being used to determine victory. In terms of a general question. I would say yes simply because of the strike outs. Johan will be coming off elbow surgery, and his strike out numbers have started to descend a little bit so it’s not out of the possibility that he’s starting to fall down the fantasy mountain a little bit.

I’ll be coming out with rankings when we get closer to that time, but I will have Greinke right behind Lincecum in terms of fantasy numbers. If your in a Dynasty league that drafts over the winter, JUMP ON HIM EARLY. You can’t afford to pass him up for an older pitcher like Halladay when Greinke has the upside he has.

My top 5 for 2009-

1) Tim Lincecum- San Francisco Giants

2) Zach Greinke- Kansas City Royals

3) Roy Halladay- Toronto Blue Jays

4) Johan Santana- New York Mets

5) Danny Haren- Arizona Diamondbacks

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