Baltimore Trying to Play Catch Up


By Rick Mell
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Friday, December 25, 2009  

After finishing 64-98 last year, it is no surprise that the Orioles have been active this off-season. Nothing they did was franchise altering, but the Orioles should be improved heading into the 2010 season.

They traded reliever Chris Ray to Texas for Kevin Millwood. They also got $3 million back in the deal. Although some of his peripherals are not that appealing he should earn the $9 million he is owed this year. All he has to do is have a wins above replacement around 2.2 to be worth his money. He has been above that for his entire career. He’s usually good for around 30 starts, which should lessen the load on their bullpen. It also allows them to protect some of their younger starters. It’s also possible that teams could use a starter like Millwood in the middle of a pennant race and he could bring in a decent return. If the Orioles decide to hold onto him he should at least be a “Type B” free agent next year meaning they would get a compensation pick in the draft should they chose to offer him arbitration. In either scenario the Orioles come out well and all it cost them was Chris Ray.

They signed free agent Mike Gonzales to a 2-year deal worth 12 million dollars. He should help stabilize the back end of the bullpen. He posted a respectable 2.73 K/BB ratio in 2009. He can be prone to walking guys, but he compensates for it by striking out a lot of batters. Considering what closers have gone for in the past they got a pretty good deal for Gonzalez. The Orioles did a good thing by not locking him into a long-term deal.

They also took a chance on former Colorado third baseman Garrett Atkins to a 1 year 4 million dollar deal. He’s not quite the offensive force that he was in 2006 or 2007, but he is certainly worth taking a chance on. When looking at his numbers there is one number that jumped out at me. I realized he was quite unlucky in regards to Batting Average With Balls in Play (BABIP). He had a .247 BABIP and it should have been closer to .290. So taking that into account and assuming all hits are singles he should have had a line similar to .268/. 350/. 384. Not great, but much better than his 2009 numbers. He’s still an average to below average third baseman at this point. He also has the ability to play first base and he allows the team to pursue another infielder if the team chooses to. This is a classic example of a low risk/high reward signing. At worst he should be able to be 1 win above replacement, which would equal the contract he signed, but he has the potential to be a 5 win player like he was in 2006. He is not blocking any minor league players also.

Like I said earlier these moves are not franchise altering, but they should be improved for the 2010 season. At the very least they should be more watchable and may win some new fans. Andy MacPhail has his team headed in the right direction. As a Cubs fan I wish this is the Andy MacPhail the Cubs had during his tenure as president of the team.

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