Just Say No Jim!


By Rick Mell

Monday, December 7, 2009  

There have been rumors of a trade between the Cubs and the Tigers. The Cubs would be sending 3rd base prospect Josh Vitters and Pitcher Andrew Cashner to the Tigers for Center Fielder Curtis Granderson and pitcher Edwin Jackson. Although Curtis Granderson is one of my favorite players, I hope that this deal does not go through. I have no problems trading prospects, but I think the Cubs would be selling low on these two if this deal went through.

Curtis Granderson is a good centerfielder with a reasonable contract, but the problem I see is that he is a glorified platoon hitter. He hit right- handed pitchers at a great rate as he posted a .897 OPS last year, but he only managed a .484 OPS against lefties. The Cubs already have Fukudome on the roster that struggles against lefties. The Cubs would have two outfielders that are useless against lefties. I don’t know if the Cubs can afford to have 2 platoon partners for Fukudome and Granderson. If Fukudome was not on the roster I would be open to acquiring Granderson. I think the Cubs would be better suited signing someone like Mike Cameron to play center assuming Milton Bradley is traded. Cameron has been more valuable than Granderson the last two seasons. With Cameron you get a great defensive center fielder with a good amount of power. You also do not have to give up any prospects to get him. You may be able to get for less years and a cheaper rate than Granderson.  In two years prospect Brett Jackson might be ready to get called up so Cameron is a good stopgap.

Edwin Jackson had a nice season in his first season in Detroit. He finished the season with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.2. However his second half numbers may be cause for concern. He had an ERA of 5.07 in the second half. He is also prone to giving up the homerun. He gave up 27 homeruns last season and that is with pitching a lot of his games at Comerica Park, which is more of a pitchers park than Wrigley is. I would be a little worried about him pitching in Wrigley with his tendency to give up the homerun. Throughout his career he has had control problems and if you combine that with him giving up the homerun you have an average pitcher. He’s a nice pitcher but he is not worth giving up some of your top prospects for. I think we have pitchers in house that can put up the numbers that Jackson is most likely to put up. If the Cubs were looking for a starting pitcher I would look for one with more upside such as: Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, or Justin Duchscherer. Duchscherer might be the more realistic option given the Cubs financial situation.

Another reason I would not do this deal is that I am high on both Vitters and Cashner. Josh Vitters is one of the few power bats in the Cubs minor league system. Aramis Ramirez has the option to opt out after the 2011 season so it would be nice to have an insurance policy in case Aramis leaves. Vitters reminds me of a younger Aramis Ramirez in that neither walked all that much, but neither one of them struck out all that much either. Aramis eventually became a more patient hitter and I think the same can be said for Vitters.  I also think Cashner has a chance to be something special. He has the potential to be an ace. The Cubs do not have a lot of pitchers of his caliber in their system. Worst case scenario he becomes a dominant closer. I think his arm is too great to give up for players like Granderson and Jackson. There are free agents out that are as good or better than Granderson and Jackson. I have no problem selling high on these prospects, but if the Cubs are going to trade these two I want it to be for someone like Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Kemp, or Grady Sizemore. I’m not giving up top prospects for slight upgrades.

I hope Hendry learns his lesson from the Peavy situation last off-season in that sometimes the best trades are the ones you do not make. In my opinion this would certainly qualify as one of those deals that you are better off not making.

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