Monday, January 25, 2010
1. Mark Reynolds ARI?
Nah, I’m just kidding. Alex Rodriguez’s the man here still, clearly. Reynolds had a great year, but as you see, he is lower on this list. A-Rod is getting up there in age, but he is still a dominant fantasy player and despite missing over a month of the season last year, still finished with 30 homers and 100 RBIs, the 12th straight year he’s amassed those totals. He also can still steal a few bags. Whatever way you look at it, A-Rod’s a stud.
2. David Wright NYM
I know what you all are thinking: 10 homers last year and he’s the second best fantasy third baseman? Well, I’m betting he’s going to rebound. He’s been a 30-homer threat for his whole career and suddenly he hits just 10 bombs? It has to be a fluke. It has to be, right? Well, regardless of his power, he can still steal close to 30 bags, he can hit .320 and he will drive in 100 and score 100, probably. That’s pretty darn good. Chalk last year up to a fluke, not the ballpark. His power will come back.
3. Evan Longoria TB
Eva Longoria has been a mainstay on Desperate Housewives while Evan Longoria has found success on his own accord and become a mainstay in the top-3 fantasy third basemen, at least for the next 10 years or so. He will hit 30 homers, drive in 110-120 runs, score over 100 and hit .285. Plus, here’s a cool statistic for you: he has never been caught stealing in his Major League career. 16-for-16. I see him getting the green light on the bases a little bit more this year, so add steals to his already gaudy totals. And, his natural progression should allow him to hit closer to .300.
4. Mark Reynolds ARI
Here is, really. Last year was incredible for Reynolds. So good, I suggested he come up with a rap. A Reynolds rap. It could be bigger than the Super Bowl Shuffle. His 40-20 season was amazing, but his strikeouts and the fact that the steals came out of nowhere drop his stock. There’s no way he hits .260 again if he continues to strikeout in more than 1/3 of his at-bats. Also, the steals may not approach 25 again, but he will have double digit steals and nobody can question his power. He could hit 50 homers as he becomes a more adept overall hitter and he should drive in and score 100 runs each year for a long, long time.
5. Pablo Sandoval SF
Kung Fu Panda is a perfect nickname for this round-faced Giant. He’s large, but athletic and posts fat fantasy numbers. He broke out last year, hitting .330 with 25 bombs and 90 RBIs. I’ll bet this year, he improves across the board. He’s a true talent, a pure hitter. He hits from both sides of the plate, so no matchup can get the best of him, and he doesn’t strike out often, so he has a higher chance of getting bloop base hits or seeing-eye singles, thus improving his average. He could win a batting title sometime in the near future, but don’t expect much of a bump in his power. 35 is probably his limit, but he’ll figure to hit more like 30.
6. Ryan Zimmerman WAS
Z-dog had by far the most productive year of his career, almost across the board. His 11 steals from his rookie season don’t figure into his game anymore, but he has finally realized his potential. Expect 30 homers, 100 runs and 100 RBIs from here on out, and he is a precise hitter that uses the whole field, so his average will most likely rise. Also, consider that he is the main cog in a lineup that is continually improving, so he will have more chances to both drive in runs and score runs, while continuing to see good pitches to hit.
7. Chone Figgins SEA
He won’t hit .330 again like he did in ’07 and seeing as how he is 32 now, he probably won’t steal 62 like he did in ’05, but Figgins is a smart player. Instead of just accepting the fact that his skills may be declining, especially in the speed department, he has chosen to progress his game and come back to lead the AL in walks last season with 101. His on-base percentage should be close to .400 again, he’ll hit close to .300 again, he’ll steal 30 again and he will score 100 again.
8. Aramis Ramirez CHC
Everything about A-Ram’s 2009 season was forgettable. He dislocated his shoulder in May, only appearing in 82 games, and his team had one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. Expect a turnaround for both. Ramirez is soft—he has battled minor injuries throughout his career, but you can never predict when they will come or how serious they will be. He played in 149 games in ’08, so assume he’ll approach that again, but I expect to see a little bit better numbers across the board than he put up in ’08. He is a slugger who doesn’t strike out or walk much, but he’s showed the past couple of years that he is advancing as a hitter and crushing the ball to the tune of .320 with 35 bombs is not out of the question. I expect .310, 30, 115 RBIs and 100 runs.
9. Michael Young TEX
Young missed some time last year and his numbers were down as a result, but he’s pretty much a 200-hit machine. He will hit .300 and could even hit as high as .330. His power and RBI totals have fluctuated lately, but they should be solid and he will score 85 runs or so with about 10 steals. Nothing pretty, nothing flashy, nothing sexy, but he’s effective. He’ll help in pretty much every category.
10. Adrian Beltre BOS
This pick may seem a little shocking, especially after the decidedly poor season Beltre had last year, but third base isn’t what it used to be in the fantasy world. After Young, the next seven or eight guys are pretty interchangeable, so I ranked Beltre here because I believe he has the biggest upside of that bunch. He’s playing in the best lineup, moving to a better hitter’s ballpark and a better market, so he should be happier than he was playing in Seattle. He’s proved that his 2004 season (.334, 48 HR, 121 RBI) was a fluke, but he should be productive in Boston this year. It may seem like he’s been around forever, but he will only be 31 on opening day, so he’s got a lot of career left.
11. Jorge Cantu FLA
How many people knew he drove in 100 runs last year? Probably not many outside of Florida. He went largely unnoticed in most fantasy leagues, but has proved he can produce despite a cavernous and empty Florida ballpark. With Hanley Ramirez hitting directly in front of him and Dan Uggla hitting behind him, Cantu should see good pitches to hit and have plenty of opportunities to drive in 100 runs again. His average isn’t stellar, but it’s solid and he’ll add a few homers and score 75-80 runs.
12. Chipper Jones ATL
Larry may want to abandon his nickname because he did not leave fantasy owners very chipper last season, hitting 100 points lower than his ’08 season. Despite almost 50 more at-bats, Jones had 31 less hits from the season before, a mind-bottling (“Blades of Glory” reference here) statistic from one of the most professional hitters of our time. He has upside, but that’s only when he’s on the field. He’s just too injury prone to worry about drafting, not playing in 150 games since the 2003 season. He’ll be productive, but if you draft him, grab another third baseman that you can put in your lineup for when Jones gets nicked up, which is guaranteed to happen.
13. Alex Gordon KC
Is this the year Gordon finally turns into a fantasy superstar like Jordan, or will he stay like Ben Gordon, a fine player but not superstar material? The Royals’ Gordon will be 26 on opening day and time is quickly running out on his future superstar label. He has the tools, we all know that, but he hasn’t translated them into the Majors yet. His hip injury last year was an obvious setback, but he was largely unproductive even when on the field. I still like the kid a lot and I really thought last year was his breakout year, but the hip injury could have been a sign. Maybe he never will break out. But, then again, maybe it was just an injury and this year will be his breakout season. It’s worth a mid-to-late-round draft pick to find out.
14. Kevin Kouzmanoff OAK
I used to really like this kid. The problem is, he isn’t really a kid any longer, as he will be 29 this season. Time is running short on Kouz, but maybe the classic change of scenery move was all he will need. He has power and I’ve always felt he should hit at a higher average, but he needs to work on his plate discipline. I think it’s ridiculous that a professional baseball player cannot even draw 30 walks in a 140 game season. Moving outside of spacious Petco Park will help his power numbers and he could eclipse 100 RBIs, but he will do it with a low average and few runs since he boasts a terrible OBP and with Jake Fox and Eric Chavez hot on his heels.
15. Ian Stewart COL
Stewart can slug the ball, but that’s about it. His average is scary, and not in the good way. He is only 25 and with Garret Atkins in Baltimore now, Stewart will get 550-600 plate appearances, which projects to 31 homers based on last year’s numbers. If he progresses more as a hitter, that total could reach 35. The question will be, though, is what will his average be, and if he continues to hit just .230, will Colorado give him that many at-bats?
16. Placido Polanco PHI—Solid across the board, but not flashy anywhere
17. Casey Blake LAD—Always turns in solid, but unspectacular numbers
18. Casey McGahee MIL—Finally got his shot last year, but was last year for real?
19. Chase Headly SD—Is maturing and could breakout this year
20. Brandon Inge DET—Really trailed off in the second half, has some pop but that’s all
21. Mark Teahen CWS—I like him and could be real productive in Sox’s lineup
22. Scott Rolen CIN—On the tail end of a great career, but can still be worth a late pick
23. Jhonny Peralta CLE—Nothing worthwhile fantasywise anymore
24. Mike Lowell BOS—If he gets out of Boston, will rise to about 14 on this list
25. Edwin Encarnacion TOR—Really had a down year, let’s see if he can turn it around
26. Ty Wigginton BAL—Solid professional, but not worth much in fantasy circles
27. Pedro Feliz HOU—Has shown some pop in his career, but not much last few years
28. Brandon Wood LAA—Big prospect bust so far in his career, but is still just 25
29. Andy LaRoche PIT—Solid average, but not as good of a fantasy player as his brother
30. Brendan Harris MIN—Solid average as well, but not worth drafting


(2 votes, average: 4.50 out of 5)


(4.00 out of 5)



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