When Matt Holliday signed with the St. Louis Cardinals, almost every fan and baseball pundit more or less crowned the Cardinals as repeat champs of the National League Central. While I have to give the preseason edge to the Cardinals, I think this division shakes out to be a lot tighter than what most people think.

In 2009, the Cardinals were anchored by great pitching from their top 3 in the rotation. Carpenter, Wainwright, and Pineiro had a combined WAR of 16.1. That was tops in the major leagues for top 3 starters. Before the acquisition of Matt Holliday, the Cardinals defense was anemic, scoring only 428 runs in 98 games (4.37 runs per game) and posting a team line of .254/.325/.409/.734. After Holliday was traded, the Cardinals offense took off, scoring 302 runs in the remaining 64 games (4.7 runs per game) and a team line of .275/.343/.423/.766.

Holliday’s presence in the lineup was undoubtedly one of the causes of the offensive jump, as he mashed to the tune of a .353 batting average, .419 on base percentage, and a .604 slugging percentage in his time with the Cards – outstanding production. However, those numbers are going to be extremely difficult for Holliday to reproduce in a full season in St. Louis, and we can’t ignore the production he had in Oakland last season. He was a good player there, but not the offensive powerhouse he was in St. Louis, posting a .286 batting average, a .378 OBP, and a .454 SLG. The power numbers are most noticeable here, and some may think that Oakland’s cavernous dimensions are what caused them to fall. I don’t really buy into that idea, personally. I think he just struggled in his time with Oakland and wasn’t motivated by a bad team that wasn’t in contention.

On the Cardinals’ heels are the Chicago Cubs. After a very disappointing 2009 campaign that was plagued by injuries to key players, the Cubs are poised to again compete in the NL Central. For them, the key is keeping Aramis Ramirez in the lineup for 140+ games. He is the RBI machine in the middle of the lineup that keeps the lineup moving. A line of .300/.375/.515 is not out of the question for him, and that is the kind of production the team needs in the cleanup spot.

Another key player for the Cubs is Alfonso Soriano. Coming off a season in which he was worth negative .7 wins, Soriano has to rebound to the player he was in 2007 and 2008. Something that wasn’t very well documented was Soriano’s knee problem from last year. It plagued him from May until he shut it down in August and got it scoped. A healthy Soriano likely means better production from him.

The last of the disappointing trio of injured players is Geovany Soto. His injury plagued season included a bout with terrible luck. I think we will see the return of his power hitting stroke this year, after he has lost over 40 pounds this offseason. Think production just under his ROY winning 2008 season.

The Central division is likely going to be a dogfight to the last weeks of the season, and it should be exciting to watch.