Tony Andracki

Bringingheat.com Lead Journalist

1. Tim Lincecum SF

After two straight NL Cy Young awards, Lincecum is clearly the No. 1 fantasy pitcher. The long-locked little big man has been nothing short of a monster in the fantasy world. His ridiculous strikeout totals are only upstaged by his microscopic ERA and he will rack up innings, wins and low WHIP (Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched). You can draft with confidence. The only risk at this point is injury, and despite his crazy, herky-jerky motion, this dude is as cool as the other side of the pillow (thanks Stuart Scott!). Tony Andracki

2. Felix Hernandez SEA

King Felix finally, FINALLY, backed up his immense hype over a full season. 200 strikeouts, 230+ innings, 19 wins (on a sub-.500 team), a 2.49 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP make for a No. 1 fantasy starter, except that that spot is occupied by Lincecum, who is on another level of pitchers. However, considering he will just be 24 shortly after opening day, the King is the rightful heir to the No. 1 spot if Lincecum should ever fall to injury. You hear that Ludacris, King Felix is coming for that No. 1 spot, too…

3. Zack Greinke KC

How impressive was Greinke in ’09? After battling social anxiety disorder (it’s sometimes easy to forget that professional athletes are real people, too, isn’t it?), Greinke came back to win the AL Cy Young with an incredible season. Assuming he doesn’t have any setbacks psychologically, with his insane talent, Greinke will be a Top 3 fantasy pitcher again. Throw in the fact that he is just 26, the KC ace could be your fantasy ace from years to come. In keeper leagues, you can tie him up for close to a decade before he should start to become an unserviceable starter. Whatever way you look at it, Greinke certainly creates some anxiety for opposing managers and fantasy owners. Scoop him up.

4. Roy Halladay PHI

Let me paint you a picture: Roy Halladay has averaged 243 innings, a 2.78 ERA, 207 Ks and 18.5 wins over the past two seasons with 18 total complete games, including six shutouts. All of that has come in the AL East, arguably the toughest division to pitch in, and with a middle-of-the pack offense supporting him. His move to Philadelphia could pay off in a HUGE way, considering Philly’s defense is better than Toronto’s and their offense is one of the best in recent history. He could easily approach his career-high 22 wins. Consider also that recent pitchers have found great success moving from the AL to the NL, including Cliff Lee and Javy Vazquez last year, and you have yourself an equation you can’t turn away from. Halladay only ranks fourth on this list because of his advanced age (32) compared to those three above him, who are all better options in keeper leagues.

5. Justin Verlander DET

Verlander has had some ups and downs in his career, but last year, he was out of this world, leading the Majors in wins, Ks and innings pitched. He’s been a supreme talent since he entered the league with his triple-digit fastball, but his 2008 season (17 losses, 4.84 ERA) was not even worthy of a No. 5 starter. However, that was a fluke based on the rest of his season totals and he sure harnessed his talent last year. Plus, something has to be said for his durability, making at least 30 starts in four straight seasons and totaling over 200 innings pitched the past three years. His ERA is nothing to write home about, but he should again be in the mid-3 range.

6. Dan Haren ARI

Haren’s first half last year: 18 starts, 9-5, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 129 Ks in 130 IP, and just 16 walks and 12 homers allowed. His second half: 15 starts, 5-5, 4.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 94 Ks in 99.1 IP and 22 walks and 15 homers allowed. However, his final numbers weren’t even that bad: 14-10, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 Ks in 229 IP. Those are still top notch numbers, albeit, not first-round totals. He’s a nice option all things considered, and with Brandon Webb returning to the rotation, Haren might find a little bit more pressure off his shoulders and he can put together two halves that mirror his first-half totals. If not, at least you got yourself an ace in the third or fourth round considering his draft stock has to be down after his poor second half.

7. C.C. Sabathia NYY

Sabathia has been all over the place the past couple of years, but just in location. His production has remained relatively the same—240 or so innings, roughly 200 strikeouts, complete games, shutouts, 17-19 wins and an ERA ranging from 2.70-3.37. Expect more of the same this year. He’s a consistent performer, so you know what you’re going to get from the 30-year-old.

8. Jon Lester BOS

The 26-year-old southpaw has had quite the career, one worthy of a Hollywood movie, or at the very least, a novel. His latest chapter, 2009, saw his strikeouts rise drastically and consequently, his stock has also risen. For the first time in his Major League career, Lester had more strikeouts than innings pitched, totaling 225 whiffs in 203.1 innings. Considering his career progression already, who knows what his true ceiling is. Throw in the all-world offense behind him and a great supporting staff around him in the pitching staff, Lester should, at the very least, reach last year’s totals.

9. Johan Santana NYM

This is the first year in almost a decade that Johan is not considered one of the elite starting pitchers heading into the season. After a down 2009 season in which he saw his batting average against rise (.244) to the highest total he has ever given up over a full season, as well as rising walk totals, decreasing velocity and an elbow injury that shut him down over the season’s final months. After his trade to the Mets, Santana was presumed to see an uptick in his overall numbers moving to the NL and facing opposing pitchers and pinch hitters instead of the DH, but he has actually worsened fantasywise. His two seasons in New York have been the only two years in which he has not had more strikeouts than innings pitched. However, with all that being said, Santana is still one of the game’s best pitchers. Those drawbacks are only drawbacks from his traditional numbers. He will still rack up the strikeouts, complete a few games, and with the Mets offense, should garner 16-20 wins. Not to mention his ERA has never been worse than 3.33 over a full season.

10. Adam Wainwright STL

The 6-foot-7 skyscraper has seen his career progress much like Lester’s—with a lot of storybook moments. Last season was no exception as he turned in by far his best season in the Majors, leading the league in wins and innings pitched. His 212 strikeouts were slightly unexpected, but have become a part of his game now. You shouldn’t expect his 2.63 ERA to continue, but he’s obviously shown he is capable of reaching that lofty number over a full season, so it’s not out of the question.

11. Cliff Lee SEA

After his incredible 2008 campaign where he came out of nowhere to capture the AL Cy Young award, Lee turned in a very solid 2009 season. He is on his third team in the past nine months, and the move to Seattle, despite the spacious ballpark, will decrease his value slightly. The Mariners’ offense is nowhere near what Philly’s was, so his win total may go down, but expecting something around his 2009 numbers would not be unwise.

12. Brandon Webb ARI

If you throw out the 2009 season, Webb would be at least a top 10 pitcher. He strikes out 180 guys a year, throws 230 or so innings, turns in a really solid ERA in the 3.00-3.30 range with 18-20 wins. However, you can’t throw out 2009 just because of the severity of the shoulder injury he suffered. He just started throwing off a mound again and there’s no absolute guarantee that he will be 100 percent by opening day. He is just 30 still, so he has time to rebound, but be at least a little bit wary coming off a serious injury. However, since people will be wary, he could fall in many drafts, so scoop him up if he makes it past the sixth round or so.

13. Josh Beckett BOS

Beckett can be your fantasy ace, but he may not even need to be considering most leagues are 12 teams or less. Whatever team ends up with him as their No. 2 starter is sitting pretty, prettier than Amanda Bynes looks lately. Beckett will get you plenty of strikeouts and wins while racking up 200 innings and turning in an ERA under 4.00 most likely.

14. Yovani Gallardo MIL

The 24-year-old Milwaukee ace is well on his way to becoming a fantasy ace. After a 2009 season in which he averaged 9.91 K/9 innings, Gallardo is emerging as a top end option as starting pitcher. His numbers figure to only get better from here as he continues to develop both physically and mentally, so he’s a very enticing option in keeper leagues as well.

15. Josh Johnson FLA

Johnson has also emerged as one of the top starting pitchers in the game today after a stellar 2009 season that saw him total 15 wins, a 3.23 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 209 innings pitched. He also is near unhittable at times, allowing just a .237 average all year. At just 26, Johnson is also a great option in keeper leagues and he seems to have put his arm troubles in the past for good. He does play for a struggling offense, but his home park is big, so expect 15 or so wins once again with a low ERA.

16. Jake Peavy CWS

One thing is for certain—Peavy will get you strikeouts wherever he pitches, averaging just over a strikeout per inning pitched in his career. He is slightly injury prone, but a full offseason should heal his ankle properly, so he will start 2010 with a slate that is so fresh and so clean, clean. He also is just 28 and will be pitching with an actual, talented offense behind him for the first time in his career. His incredible WHIP and ERA totals may take somewhat of a hit pitching in the American League for a full season for the first time, but he should still be a very good No. 2 fantasy pitcher and could put up ace numbers.

17. Cole Hamels PHI

Everybody was down on Hamels in ’09 because of his inflated ERA and deflated Ks, but expect a full rebound in 2010. He has the talent; 2009 was just a rough year for him. He was a little unlucky, so expect his ERA to come back to earth, although only slightly. His strikeouts will once again be high and he will garner a bunch of wins in the loaded Philadelphia lineup.

18. John Lackey BOS

If healthy, Lackey is a worthy fantasy ace, although that is a pretty big “if” lately, having not surpassed 30 starts in a season since 2007. In the Boston lineup, he will rack up plenty of wins and will continue to pitch a lot of innings with a low ERA and low WHIP, and even though he won’t reach 200 strikeouts, he will come pretty close. The only thing limiting Lackey right now is his injury prone label, but he could easily shed that.

19. Clayton Kershaw LAD

The 22-year-old Kershaw is here to stay, folks. After his 2009 season (2.79 ERA, 9.7 K/9), Kershaw is quickly moving his way up the ranks of fantasy lists everywhere. Heck, by this time next year, he could easily be in the Top 10. In keeper leagues, he should be a hot commodity with five years before he even hits his prime. Scoop him up now before somebody else beats you to it.

20. Tommy Hanson ATL

SEE: Kershaw, Clayton.

Nah, I’m just playing, I will actually explain a little bit more for Hanson, though he and Kershaw’s rationale will mirror each other’s. Hanson is just the poor man’s Kershaw, however. He’s a righty, but that doesn’t matter in fantasy, he’s a year older (23), and his 2009 ERA and K totals were not as good. However, Hanson will put the “Mmmm Bop!” back in your step if you are able to secure him in a keeper league, because he will be a star for years to come.

21. Roy Oswalt HOU

Oswalt’s 2009 season was not one for the ages. He suffered through some minor injuries and rough luck to post an ERA over 4.00 for the first time in his career and only managed eight wins. But, I wouldn’t worry too much about last year. Houston had an underachieving team all-around, but 2010 should be different for both the Astros and for Oswalt. He will once again return to ace status with a season that mimics more of his 2001-08 numbers.

22. Jered Weaver LAA

After Weaver’s rookie performance in 2006, there was a lot of fantasy hype about the kid, but it proved to be much ado about nothing, that is until last year. Weaver set career highs pretty much across the board and made the Angels feel so comfortable that they let John Lackey walk via free agency and left the throne to Weaver. He will be a very solid No. 2 fantasy pitcher for you in all areas. He doesn’t set the world on fire with strikeouts, but he’s no slouch.

23. Javy Vazquez NYY

Vazquez enjoyed the best year of his career last year pitching for the Braves, but the move back to the AL will definitely raise his ERA. His strikeouts, innings pitched and WHIP totals should only drop slightly. His win total, however, should reach 17-18 with the powerful Yankees lineup behind him. The scary thing is, Vaz gives up a few homers (320 over his career) and I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the new Yankee Stadium gives up a few homers of its own. So, beware, but he should still be a very solid No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy starter.

24. Chris Carpenter STL

The only thing keeping Carp from ace status is his risk, which is VERY high. He has had more arm injuries in the past couple of years than many teams have and he has always been injury prone throughout his career. That being said, Carpenter will give you a very low ERA, lots of wins and a pretty decent strikeout total while keeping his WHIP below 1.10. It’s all high risk/high reward, but it’s worth a shot.

25. Matt Cain SF

In ’07 and ’08, Cain was the product of a lot of bad luck, pitching great in games but still somehow coming up on the losing end. In ’09, he had a lot of good luck, mainly with balls in play. He will likely not post a 2.89 ERA again, though that’s not too much out of the question, but he has decreased his walk totals, so he should once again be a pretty good pitcher in 2010. His declining strikeouts are a little worrisome, because if those go, he is not on a good enough of a team to get a lot of wins, so he would become more obsolete in fantasy circles. He should fit in nicely as the No. 3 starter for some team.

26. A.J. Burnett NYY—Will get a lot of Ks and wins, but inconsistent from year to year

27. James Shields TB—Very solid starter coming off down year, will come cheap

28. Wandy Rodriguez HOU—Expect a dropoff from last year, but still very solid

29. Jair Jurrjens ATL—Again, will drop off from last year, but a great No. 3 starter

30. Chad Billingsley LAD—Will rebound from down year, expect numbers closer to ‘08

31. Ricky Nolasco FLA—Another rebound case, was a different pitcher in 2^nd half last year

32. Ubaldo Jimenez COL—Young pitcher just getting better and better, lots of Ks

33. Ted Lilly CHC—Always solid, good ERA and win totals

34. Matt Garza TB—Strikeouts are on the rise

35. Chris Young SD—The only question is will he be healthy?

36. Ervin Santana LAA—Derailed by injuries last year, will provide Ks and wins at least

37. Mark Buehrle CWS—Provides wins and really good ERA and WHIP totals

38. Rich Harden TEX—Move back to AL, is dominant fantasy pitcher when healthy

39. Daisuke Matsuzaka BOS—Will rebound from ’09 season, gets lots of Ks and wins

40. Rick Porcello DET—Young guy, will only improve, Ks should increase

41. Gavin Floyd CWS—Solid starter, decent Ks, will get a lot of wins on South Side

42. Erik Bedard SEA—If healthy is a very good starter, but that is a big “if”

43. Carlos Zambrano CHC—Is just a big question mark all around about numbers and attitude

44. Edinson Volquez CIN—Great in fantasy, but coming off arm injury so beware

45. Edwin Jackson ARI—Played slightly over his head in ’09, may benefit from move to NL

46. Ryan Dempster CHC—Will benefit from more consistent offense in ‘10

47. Max Scherzer DET—Great potential, unsure when he will reach it though, could be in ‘10

48. Scott Kazmir LAA—Really found his groove again in LA, could sustain that all season

49. Brett Myers HOU—Should benefit from change of scenery, always good Ks

50. Scott Baker MIN—Overall very solid starter, ’09 is his ceiling most likely

51. John Danks CWS—Solid ERA and WHIP, will get his fair share of W’s

52. Ben Sheets OAK—High risk/very high reward option

53. Hiroki Kuroda LAD—good ERA with good team leads to wins

54. Andy Pettite NYY—If nothing else, will get plenty of W’s

55. David Price TB—Immense potential, could take step closer to realizing it fully in ‘10

56. Tim Hudson ATL—Rebounding from injury, so some risk here

57. Francisco Liriano MIN—Strong rebound case, I really like him this year

58. Johnny Cueto CIN—Good Ks, is very young, will bounce back

59. Derek Lowe ATL—You know what you’re going to get from Lowe year in, year out

60. Jeff Niemann TB—Very good rookie season, but is a sophomore slump looming?

61. Ricky Romero TOR—Came into his own last year, solid No. 4 starter

62. Kenshin Kawakami ATL—Good No. 4 or No. 5 guy

63. Jonathan Sanchez SF—Real good Ks, had great second half

64. J.A. Happ PHI—Last year was probably his ceiling

65. Brad Penny STL—Could rebound with St. Louis, should at least get wins

66. Kevin Slowey MIN—Worthy of a late round pick in most leagues

67. Joel Pineiro LAA—Solid No. 5 starter, loses value moving to AL

68. Joe Saunders LAA—Guy just knows how to get wins, but that’s all he offers

69. John Maine NYM—Could revert back to ’07 form, but will he? At least offers Ks

70. Jorge De La Rosa COL—Racks up the Ks, but will come with high ERA and WHIP

71. Randy Wells CHC—Last year was probably his ceiling

72. Aaron Harang CIN—Rebound possible, but still scary option based on down ’09 season

73. Wade Davis TB—Performed well in his cup of coffee, but will hit some speed bumps

74. Brad Bergesen BAL—Came into his own last year, decent upside

75. Kevin Millwood BAL—Better in real life than fantasy, will get double digit wins

76. Joe Blanton PHI—Decent option, innings eater and will get some wins

77. Mike Pelfrey NYM—Still very young, has room to grow

78. Gil Meche KC—Coming off down year, should revert back to ’07-08 form

79. Brandon Morrow TOR—Lots of Ks, but injury prone and inconsistent

80. Kevin Correia SD—Is an OK option, but pitches for a real bad offense

81. Ryan Rowland-Smith SEA—Good ERA, decent low-price option

82. Shawn Marcum TOR—Very solid in ’08, but coming off Tommy John surgery

83. Paul Maholm PIT—Not bad, no Ks, pitches for terrible club

84. Randy Wolf MIL—Is overall somewhat solid, but inconsistent year to year

85. Clay Buchholz BOS—Had a very good Sept., but always overshadowed in Boston

86. Jason Marquis WAS—Dependable and picks up some wins, but that’s it

87. Nick Blackburn MIN—4.00 ERA, low Ks, .500 record

88. David Huff CLE—Ended season on hot note, worth a look in AL-only

89. Dallas Braden OAK—Decent option, not many Ks

90. Fausto Carmona CLE—Will he ever revert back to ’07 form? Worth late round pick to find out

91. Barry Zito SF—Eh, best season in SF last year

92. Bud Norris HOU—Real good K potential from a young up-and-comer

93. Aroldis Chapman CIN—Enticing prospect, but that’s it at this point

94. Scott Feldman TEX—Bad at home, good on road

95. Brett Anderson OAK—Good, young option, good Ks

96. Jeremy Guthrie BAL—Has had a real up and down career, worth look only in AL formats

97. Jon Garland SD—Finds ways to get wins, but that will prove tougher in SD

98. Marc Rzepczynski TOR—Good, young potential

99. Chris Tillman/Brian Matusz BAL—Young starters with hype and potential

100. Tommy Hunter/Derek Holland/Matt Harrison TEX—All real young with upside