Dan Haren

Haren is one of the best starting pitchers in the National League, and despite a good win/loss record, which is useless, anyway, he has struggled somewhat in this short season. His first start of the year was fantastic, going 7 innings of 3 hit baseball with no walks, 4 K’s and 1 earned run. His next start wasn’t so great. 6.2 IP, 9 hits, 2 BB’s, 9 Ks, and 5 earned runs. His 3rd start was once again, very good, giving up just 2 earned runs over 6.1 innings.

His 4th start was brutal, going 6 innings against the Cardinals who touched Haren up for 7 earned runs over 9 hits and 2 BB’s. This start, from April 2o and Haren’s first start from April 5 are the ones I’ll be focusing on here.

Four Seam Fastball

April 5

April 20

These two graphs show the release points of Haren’s four seam fastball for the two starts. As you can see, they are fairly tightly grouped, which is a good thing. The difference is that in his April 20 start, he seemed to shift his release point about 6 inches to the right (catcher’s perspective). This shift appears to have negatively affected his ability to locate his four seamer:

April 5

April 20

Haren pounded the strike zone with his four seamer on opening day, but on the 20th, he was all over the place.

Cut Fastball

April 5

April 20

Again, the difference in release points for Haren’s cutter on the 5th versus Haren’s cutter on the 20th is that he shifted to the right. It wasn’t quite as dramatic as his four seamer, but the difference had the same effect on his location.

April 5

April 20

Once again, Haren’s change in release point resulted in some struggles with locating his cutter. Same story with his split finger fastball, as well. This shows just how important release point is for pitchers to be effective. Those that repeat their release the same way more often are more likely to be successful.

This is going to be a weekly series, so keep an eye out for more. Next week I’ll focus on Josh Beckett, who has had a rough go of it so far this season.

However, he does have a point with some of the things he has done and said. He’s already been ejected from two spring training games, showing that he either has a real problem, or the umpires do have a much shorter leash with him. I won’t go as far as saying they “have it out” for Bradley, but it’s pretty clear that he gets the short end of the stick sometimes.

Last season he was suspended for touching an umpire. The bill of his batting helmet barely grazed the bill of the umpires hat, which was only evident when the video was played in slow motion. We are talking about the effect of a fly landing on the umpire landing Bradley a suspension. There are a lot of guys that the umpire wouldn’t have even thought about reporting for that “offense.” In one of Bradley’s most famous run-ins with fans, he was playing for the Dodgers and confronted a fan about throwing objects on the field. He slammed whatever the object was on the ground at the fan’s feet and told them to not throw stuff on the field. In my opinion, he had every right to do that. He didn’t assault a fan, he just told them not to assault him or his fellow players. No fan, anywhere, has a right to throw debris onto the field (visiting home run balls not withstanding).

In Chicago, Bradley was always going to be the center of controversy, whether he actually provoked it or not. He came in with a notorious past and the fans and media just assumed he would have an incident. It was a self fulfilling prophecy, in my opinion. Bradley came, the fans expected a blow up and the media obliged by pushing him until he had one. Answering questions every day about your effects on the clubhouse atmosphere and why the team isn’t as good as it was last year has to take its toll.

I don’t condone his calling the Cubs and Chicago negative, but I understand it. The Second City can be one of the most welcoming places if you’re loved, but if you’re hated it can be downright dangerous. Receiving threats of violence and racist letters in the mail is unacceptable, and is beneath Cubs fans.

Bradley is obviously no saint, but he’s far from the evil monster that many Cubs fans want him to be.

Recently, there has been talk out of Bud Selig’s office of division realignment. No serious talks have been discussed yet, but Selig says he would be open to discussing it before and during the next collective bargaining agreement. Now, the traditionalist in me does not like the idea of realigning the divisions, but the realist in me sees that there is an issue that needs to be resolved for the sake of baseball. Floating realignment probably addresses these problems better than any alternative out there.

I think a realignment system set up for 5 year intervals with the alignment based on average team budget and record over that time period would keep parity in baseball high, which in my opinion, would help teams from all markets draw fans to the stadiums. If we pretend such a system was to be put into effect next season, here is what the data would look like.

As we can see, the Yankees easily outstrip all other clubs in terms of payroll

…and lead the way in winning percentage as well.

Now we can take these two variables and figure out which teams belong together. I’m going to use the same number of divisions and teams from each league.

Each division breaks down like this: Division 1 is for the top teams in the league, Division 2 is for the middle teams, and Division 3 is for the bottom teams.

AL Division 1

Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, White Sox, Tigers

AL Division 2

Twins, Blue Jays, Indians, Mariners, Rangers

AL Division 3

Athletics, Orioles, Rays, Royals

NL Division 1

Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs

NL Division 2

Braves, Astros, Brewers, Giants, Reds, Diamondbacks

NL Division 3

Padres, Rockies, Marlins, Nationals, Pirates

The playoffs would work the same way that they do now: three division winners and a Wild Card winner.

This alignment would be in place for five years and then reevaluated and realigned based on the same criterion. This makes it more likely that a team like the Rays, who are probably one of the top four teams in the American League, will make the playoffs. The schedule would have to be balanced again, since travel costs and strains would mount in divisions like the AL 1 and AL 3.

This alignment likely keeps each division a lot closer, thus making each division race more interesting and drawing more fans to games down the stretch in markets like Pittsburgh, Washington, and Kansas City, which don’t see many meaningful September baseball games.

Some may say that this system opens the door for teams that don’t really deserve to be in the playoffs to make it there. I would argue the opposite. If each team plays each other team roughly the same amount of times, the true good teams will emerge and move on to the playoffs. The difference is that while a team like Marlins will likely not finish in the top two in the NL East this year, they would have a far greater chance of winning the NL’s 3rd Division outlined above.

Realigning the divisions with a floating realignment introduces more parity into the game, and allows the best teams to earn their spots in the playoffs based on performance against the league rather than being unlucky enough to play in a division with several big market teams.

Readers, let me know what you think either via comments or email at matt.milner@bringingheat.com

Tom Tango, the author of The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball (which I own and highly recommend to anyone interested in Sabermetrics) was hired by both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners to do statistical analysis for their teams. Tango is also credited for his work on DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics), specifically FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) which normalizes a pitcher’s performance based on the things they control, like strikeouts, walks, and home runs. FIP tends to be a good indicator of pitchers who are under- or over-performing their ERA. Anyone interested in Tom Tango’s work should check out www.insidethebook.com.

Back to the Mariners. After the 2008 season, Seattle fired GM Bill Bavasi and hired Jack Zduriencik. Zduriencik came from the Brewers scouting department, and is one of the biggest reasons for their drafting and fantastic development of players like Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and J.J. Hardy. Since taking over the ship in Seattle, Zduriencik has turned his focus on defense, most notably outfield defense. He traded J.J. Putz away for Franklin Gutierrez, a stud center fielder who posted a 29.1 UZR in 2009. That’s almost 3 wins on defense and that’s fantastic.

All of this is great for the Mariners, but some may ask “why is it relevant to all of baseball?” Zduriencik is a fairly adamant subscriber of Sabermetric baseball theory. Some of the moves he has made this season have been hailed as genius and they have the pundits placing the Mariners in the thick of the race for the AL West crown. Zduriencik maneuvered for Cliff Lee in the three team deal that sent Roy Halladay to Philadelphia. He moved one of the worst contracts in baseball in Carlos Silva for the bane of Chicago, Milton Bradley. While some may consider that move a lateral one, it likely isn’t. Bradley has very high potential while Silva’s potential is 4th starter at best. The Mariners signed Chone Figgins who, despite his struggles in Spring Training thus far, will probably be a good player for them and at the very least will play great third base defense. They also brought in Casey Kotchman to play first base. They won’t slug the ball, but they’ll sure as hell catch it.

The issue here is that the Mariners are now being heralded as the “new Moneyball” team with their focus on defense. They are now the face of Sabermetrics, for better or for worse. This season could be seen as a barometer of sorts for the ideology. If they end up having a great year, Sabermetrics looks great in the mainstream eye and more people will likely start looking into it. If they end up worse than they were last year, some will likely consider it a failure and write Sabermetrics off.

This is something to keep track of this season. Sabermetrics won’t go away no matter what happens, but it’s public perception could be swayed by how well the Mariners do.

Now, I have a hard time believing this is a real rumor at all, since almost everyone involved has come out and said it is completely false, but just for the sake of argument, let’s take a look at how this trade could work for the Cardinals and Phillies.

Albert Pujols is pretty easily the best baseball player in the world, but Ryan Howard is no slouch. Here’s how they compare in different aspects of the game.

Offense

Pujols is obviously a beast. He has a career .416 wOBA, and has had a wOBA over .450 three times. Fantastic. He has been worth over 70 runs with the bat in each of the last two seasons. His wRC+ has never been lower than 152, with his career average being 173 (wRC+ is set up so that 100 is average and any number above or below 100 is that percent above/below average. So, a wRC+ of 101 means the player would be 1% better than average).

For those that are less sabermetrically inclined, Pujols’ traditional Triple Crown stats have averaged 41 HR, 124 RBI, and a .334 AVG in his nine major league seasons.

Simply put; he’s the best.

Howard, however, is no pushover at the plate. He’s posted a career .396 wOBA crossing the .400 wOBA mark once, in 2006. His batting values have been fairly sporadic through his career, thus far, but he’s had a 141 wRC+ for his career. Obviously, he’s a far cry from the level Pujols is, but he’s a very productive offensive player.

His Triple Crown stats look like 37 HR, 107 RBI, and a .279 AVG for his career.

Defense

Pujols is touted as one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball, and for good reason. Although his last two seasons have shown decline from his 2007 season, in which he posted an 18.8 UZR. That’s almost two full wins of defense, alone. His 2009 UZR was an unimpressive 1.3 runs, but he’s got the tools and the determination to be among the best in the league, once again.

Defense has never been Howard’s strong suit, but in the past few years he’s turned himself into a decent first baseman. In 2008, he posted his career high 2.8 UZR, which is probably his ceiling going forward.

Baserunning

Pujols tends to put up a surprising amount of stolen bases each year, but his baserunning in general is about average. Baseball Prospectus has a statistic called EQBRR, which stands for Equivalent Base Running Runs and is a combination of stolen bases and different types of base advancement. Pujols has been around 0 for his career, with some seasons above and some below average.

Howard’s baserunning ability is easily his most limited skill. He’s posted EQBRR numbers under -3 for most of his career.

Pujols is obviously the superior player. The question becomes one of money. Howard is due to make $7 million more than Pujols is over the next two years, but Pujols will undoubtedly command more money than Howard on an extension. If the Cardinals thought they couldn’t afford Pujols, or that they didn’t want to risk plunking almost 40% of their payroll on him and Holliday with a fairly weak farm system behind them, they may actually entertain trading for Howard. The money they would save could help in fielding a good team around Howard, something that might not be possible if Pujols gets $30 million per year, like some think he will.

Personally, I wouldn’t make the deal unless I was assured that ownership wouldn’t raise payroll to acomodate the new extension. If two players are taking up between 30 and 40% of the payroll space, it’s hard to imagine fielding a successful team around them unless you have strong support in the minor league system. Cardinals fans, I’m sorry, but your farm system just isn’t that system right now. In fact, Beyond The Box Score just ranked the Cardinals’ farm system dead last in the majors. Now, I don’t agree with that assessment since the Astros are worse off by a pretty wide margin, but the Cardinals are in the discussion.

My conclusion is that it might behoove the Cardinals to try to move Pujols given the right situation

The Yankees started the offseason off by trading for Curtis Granderson and signing Nick Johnson, letting Hideki Mastui and Johnny Damon walk in an effort to get younger. With those departures goes quite a bit of offensive production (Matsui: .274/.367/.509; Damon: .282/.365/.489), which likely won’t be matched by Granderson and Johnson. Their offense will still be fantastic, but not quite as potent as it was in 2009. They also traded Melky Cabrera to Atlanta, leaving the center field job to Brett Gardner, who will likely help the team defensively, but not much offensively. The Yankees outfield will likely be a better defensive unit in 2010.

The Red Sox let Alex Gonzales walk and signed Marco Scutaro, who should add some value offensively despite being a lesser defensive SS. They also signed Mike Cameron, who is a defensive wizard in center field, which allows the Red Sox to move Ellsbury to left field where he is likely better suited after a poor defensive year in center. Cameron brings some pop and a little bit of on base skill, but it’s a far cry from the offensive production Jason Bay had in 2009. Luckily, Bay’s defense was terrible which leaves the very real possibility that the defensive boost of Cameron in CF offsets the lack of offense. Another move (that I love, by the way) was to sign Adrian Beltre to a one year deal and move Mike Lowell and his expensive contract to the bench. Beltre is a top flight defensive 3B and just might have a heck of a year beating balls off the Green Monster in an effort to get paid next year.

Now for the pitching.

The Yankees traded Melky Cabrera for Javier Vazquez from the Braves and immediately improved their starting rotation by a good amount. Vazquez likely won’t be as good as he was last year, moving to the AL East, but do not let his first stint in New York fool you: the guy can pitch. He’ll likely end up being the second best starter in the rotation behind Sabathia and will make for a deadly rotation in the playoffs. He’s also good insurance for the very fragile A.J. Burnett. There is a battle for the 5th spot still ongoing, but I think Joba Chamberlain is going to end up in the bullpen with Hughes starting. A rotation of Sabathia, Vazquez, Burnett, Pettitte, and Hughes is about as good as it comes for a starting 5.

The Red Sox added the biggest free agent pitcher this season in John Lackey. Coming from the pitcher friendly AL West, his numbers are a bit inflated, but he’s still a very good starting pitcher. A rotation of Beckett, Lackey, Lester, Dice-K, Bucholtz, and Wakefield has the potential to be pretty nasty with a good balance of experience and youth. This lineup has the potential to outproduce the one in New York, and I think it will.

The final verdict:

I think the Yankees have a slight edge, still, offensively, but that edge got smaller over the offseason. I think the Red Sox starting pitching is better, but the bullpens are very tight. Rivera is the best in the biz, but Papelbon is no slouch. I’m going to give the edge to the Yankees, as of now. Then, the final piece that, in my opinion, decides the division: defense. I have to give the defensive edge to the Red Sox. Both teams have improved on this front, but the Red Sox more so. Cameron and Beltre put them over the top.

My prediction:

Red Sox: 99-63

Yankees: 97-65

Yankees fans: feel free to send me your hate.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Last year’s NL West champs have a bunch of guys fighting for a spot in the rotation. Eric Stults, Charlie Haeger and Carlos Monasterios all pitched in the spring opener, with James McDonald set to go later in the week. Monasterios is a Rule V pick, so if he doesn’t make the Dodgers big league club, he’ll be returned to Philadelphia which seems extremely likely. James McDonald is the odds on favorite to win the spot like he did last year. He promptly lost that spot last season, but with another year under his belt he may have turned a corner. Other things to keep in mind, here, are that both Stults and Haeger are out of options and would have to clear waivers to be assigned to the minors.

New York Yankees

Joba or Hughes. If you turn on ESPN and happen to catch some kind of baseball coverage, this is probably going to be brought up at least once. This battle is interesting for fantasy teams, because in most leagues, one will have good value and the other won’t have much. Keep an eye on this one.

Chicago Cubs

This battle is for both the fourth and fifth starting spots to start the year, due to Ted Lilly’s shoulder/knee/flu/fever problems early this spring. The candidates are Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, and with a very outside chance, Andrew Cashner. The pitcher that should win this is Gorzelanny. The Cubs will likely need a few starts to fill in for Lilly and Marshall or Silva could probably fill in there. Tom Gorzelanny has the ability to be a good starting pitcher in the major leagues. As long as his velocity and location is sharp, he could even be a fantasy sleeper.

St. Louis Cardinals

Ryan McClellan, Jaime Garcia, and Rich Hill are the major candidates. Hill comes with former success in the bigs with the Cubs. If he can find his control again, he’s an absolutely nasty pitcher who has the potential to be a #3 starter. McClellan will try to make the conversion from relieving to starting this season. There is no clear favorite here since all have major question marks. Jaime Garcia has battled injuries, but was a highly touted minor leaguer. He could surprise some people this year.

Cincinnati Reds

The candidates are Mike Lincoln, Micah Owings, Matt Maloney, Justin Lehr and Travis Wood, as well as Aroldis Chapman who has an uphill battle to break camp with the Reds. You’d have to think Owings has the edge here, due to his past success. His ability to swing the bat doesn’t hurt, either. If Chapman does end up winning the battle, look for him to be a good source of strikeouts for your fantasy team.

Oakland Athletics

All of the candidates here have had major league experience despite all being under 24 years old. Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Vin Mazzaro are the candidates. The edge as of now looks to be with Cahill, although in his Cactus League opener, he struggled. As is the A’s M.O., whoever breaks camp with the team likely won’t pitch all season long in an effort to monitor their innings pitched closely. All three of these pitchers will probably see time in the major leagues next season.

There are plenty of other fifth starter battles in the big leagues, but these seem to be the most interesting and have fantasy value in deep leagues. Keep an eye on these six teams as March moves forward.

That brings us to his offensive contributions. Lopez had the best year of his career last year, posting a .356 wOBA. That’s good for a second baseman, but it looks to be an unsustainable level for him. He had a .358 BABIP, a full 38 points above his career average, as well as a 22% line drive rate, which is also above his career norm. This screams for a return to average. It’s going to take a lot more luck for Lopez to post the same numbers this season, but luckily enough for the Cardinals they didn’t have to drop big time money on him. A maximum investment of 2.2 million is very easy to swallow, even if Lopez flops. The likelihood of that, however, is as high as him repeating his 2009. After posting a 4.6 WAR last year, I’m predicting he’ll fall back into his averages a bit in most categories. With him potentially playing some SS and even OF, his defense is likely to take a hit this year, as well. So, with that said, I’m going to predict somewhere between a 1.5-2.5 WAR season for Lopez.

Overall, this is a good move by the Cardinals because they assume very little risk with this contract. Their only problem is going to be where to play all of the middle infielders they now have.

Let’s jump in.

Players in bold are my picks.

Round: 1
(1) Albert Pujols 1B
(2) Hanley Ramirez SS
(3) Alex Rodriguez 3B
(4) Chase Utley 2B
(5) Ryan Braun LF
(6) Prince Fielder 1B
(7) Miguel Cabrera 1B
(8) Matt Kemp CF
(9) Mark Teixeira 1B
(10) Tim Lincecum SP

No real surprises, here. I went with Cabrera over Kemp due to the fact that Kemp’s only had 1 great year while Cabrera has had several. I’m a fan of low risk in the first few rounds, although none of these picks will probably hurt their teams barring injury.

Round: 2
(11) Evan Longoria 3B
(12) Ryan Howard 1B
(13) Carl Crawford LF
(14) David Wright 3B
(15) Joe Mauer C
(16) Troy Tulowitzki SS
(17) Roy Halladay SP
(18) Ian Kinsler 2B
(19) Jacoby Ellsbury CF
(20) Matt Holliday LF

Again, fairly unsurprising. The only questionable pick, in my opinion, is Halladay at 17. He’ll probably be extremely good in Philly, but I have a hard time justifying a 2nd round pick to someone who will play 2 times a week, at most, for my team. I went with David Wright because I really expect him to bounce back this year in a big way. His batting average will likely come down some, but his power is almost guaranteed to return.
Round: 3
(21) Ryan Zimmerman 3B
(22) CC Sabathia SP
(23) Felix Hernandez SP
(24) Ichiro Suzuki RF
(25) Zack Greinke SP
(26) Derek Jeter SS
(27) Dustin Pedroia 2B
(28) Justin Upton RF
(29) Jimmy Rollins SS
(30) Adrian Gonzalez 1B

This round sees a run on the first couple of starting pitching tiers following the Halladay pick at the end of round 2. I went with Pedroia as the top 2B tiers are pretty thin this year.

Round: 4
(31) Kevin Youkilis 3B
(32) Joey Votto 1B
(33) Grady Sizemore CF
(34) Dan Haren SP
(35) Brian Roberts 2B
(36) Brandon Phillips 2B
(37) Jose Reyes SS
(38) Robinson Cano 2B
(39) Jon Lester SP
(40) Jason Bay LF

As you can see, a run on 2B took place in this round, justifying, at least in my mind, my Pedroia pick in the 3rd round. I went with Dan Haren in the 4th, and while that might be a bit early for a starting pitcher, especially for me, I’m happy with the production I’ll get out of Haren. He’s got the potential to be a top 3 fantasy pitcher.
Round: 5
(41) Victor Martinez C
(42) Mark Reynolds 3B
(43) Pablo Sandoval 3B
(44) Jayson Werth RF
(45) Adam Wainwright SP
(46) Justin Verlander SP
(47) Brian McCann C
(48) Adam Lind LF
(49) Johan Santana SP
(50) Justin Morneau 1B

Two top third basemen and catchers go in this round and I snagged one of the latter. Brian McCann struggled with eye problems last season early on, but rebounded in the second half to put up a solid year. I think he’s set for a full season of great production.
Round: 6
(51) Curtis Granderson CF
(52) Josh Beckett SP
(53) Cliff Lee SP
(54) Nick Markakis RF
(55) Aramis Ramirez 3B
(56) Chris Carpenter SP
(57) B.J. Upton CF
(58) Carlos Lee LF
(59) Kendry Morales 1B
(60) Bobby Abreu RF

I went with my first OF in this round, and, in my opinion, a good one. Markakis is finally going to be in a lineup that has a chance to put up some good numbers around him, making him even more valuable. One player of note is Bobby Abreu, who if he plays like he did last year is a steal at number 60.
Round: 7
(61) Joe Nathan RP
(62) Shane Victorino CF
(63) Andre Ethier RF
(64) Jonathan Broxton RP
(65) Shin-Soo Choo RF
(66) Yovani Gallardo SP
(67) Josh Johnson SP
(68) Mariano Rivera RP
(69) Adam Jones CF
(70) Nelson Cruz RF

Round 7 brings a big time run on some top relief pitchers. I picked Josh Johnson, who I really liked last year, and like even more this year. There is a reason the Marlins gave him all that money, folks.
Round: 8
(71) Ben Zobrist 2B
(72) Tommy Hanson SP
(73) Chone Figgins 3B
(74) Torii Hunter CF
(75) Billy Butler 1B
(76) Derrek Lee 1B
(77) Javier Vazquez SP
(78) Adam Dunn 1B
(79) Aaron Hill 2B
(80) Jonathan Papelbon RP

Round 8 features the question mark group. Ben Zobrist and Aaron Hill are the second basemen that came out of nowhere last year. Chone Figgins bounced back and got himself a big contract. Billy Butler continued his progression towards being a premier first baseman. Javier Vazquez put up great numbers, surprising a lot of people. The question for all these players is whether or not they will do it again in 2010. I went with Torii Hunter who is one of those consistent, but not “amazing” players.
Round: 9
(81) Josh Hamilton CF
(82) Brandon Webb SP
(83) Joakim Soria RP
(84) Lance Berkman 1B
(85) Andrew McCutchen CF
(86) Matt Cain SP
(87) Ricky Nolasco SP
(88) Johnny Damon LF
(89) Andrew Bailey RP
(90) Manny Ramirez LF

I went with Ricky Nolasco here. He’s one of the most underrated pitchers in the NL, and following his early season struggles, he was very good for the Marlins in 2009.
Round: 10
(91) Hunter Pence RF
(92) Elvis Andrus SS
(93) Gordon Beckham 3B
(94) Raul Ibanez LF
(95) Carlos Pena 1B
(96) Michael Young 3B
(97) Francisco Rodriguez RP
(98) Matt Wieters C
(99) Cole Hamels SP
(100) Carlos Quentin LF

Rounding out the top 100 picks we see one of my bounceback candidates for 2010 in Cole Hamels at 99. Gordon Beckham will likely be a steal at 93. I went with Ibanez here, hoping that he continues to produce at 4 billion years old.

After the first 10 rounds, I’m pretty light on stolen bases. Check bringingheat.com on Thursday for rounds 11-20 to see how I do.

Positional Scarcity

If you’ve looked at a list of players at all this offseason, you’ve noticed that there are a few positions where talent is very thin at the top. Catching is almost always the thinnest of those. It is one of the few positions on the field that players will be kept in the lineup for their defense in spite of poor offensive contributions, which makes them bad fantasy options. Obviously, the top of the list has 3 great options in Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, and Victor Martinez, but after that the talent drops off, or the risks jump up. Is Mike Napoli going to kill your batting average? Was Geovany Soto really a product of bad luck? Is Jorge Posada going to be healthy enough to play all season? Will Matt Wieters show major growth? Tough questions.You want to make sure that you adjust a player’s value based on the scarcity of the position he plays, especially in keeper leagues. For example, if you are in a league that keeps 4 players per team and Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jimmy Rollins all get kept, that thins out the SS pool a whole lot. Someone like Jose Reyes now jumps in value because of the fact that the talent after him falls off the table.

Mock Drafts

You should participate in at least a few mock drafts before the real thing. If you aren’t sure of your draft position yet, try drafting in different spots in a mock draft. The players available to you are much different from the 2nd spot to the 11th spot. It’s a good idea to have category targets that you want to reach after your draft is complete, as well. These targets depend on the number of teams in your draft, but if you can be near them, according to your projections, you’ll have a good measuring stick of how you’ll have to draft come draft day.

Pitching Strategies

There are a bunch of different strategies for drafting pitchers. One of the most common ones is not paying for saves. Saves are generally easy to come by on the waiver wire, so there’s no reason to waste a 3rd or 4th round pick on a relief pitcher who is essentially only good for one category. I’m not sure that I necessarily agree with this idea. Yes, you can find saves on waiver wire most seasons, but the best relievers are the best relievers for a reason. They will put up good rate stats and decent strikeout numbers for the innings they pitch. In a weekly head to head format, one relief pitcher can theoretically pitch in enough innings to match what a starting pitcher does, and usually with better stat rates. There is a new trend that is developing that the more astute fantasy drafters will draft one of Rivera/Nathan/Papelbon earlier in the draft than they “should,” like the 6th round, and go with a second closer much later to tack on more saves. This strategy requires the drafter to be very good with his offensive picks, and even more so with his starting pitching picks, because taking a closer that early means you are going to miss out on either a very good offensive player, or a top level starting pitcher.

Pitchers and catchers are reporting to camps this week! Get excited, baseball season has officially started!