Gregg is off to a nice start for the Jays. He has gone 3 for 3 in save opportunities and has yet to allow an earned run and has an impressive 12.46 K/9. He had a problem with the homerun last year, but this year he is doing an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground in the early part of the season. He has a great groundball rate of 71.4%.  This is well above his career average of 39.1%, so expect some regression here.  His BABIP of .139 is not sustainable. I don’t expect him to pitch this well for the entire season, but I don’t expect him to be as bad as he was last year either. I think he should end up with an ERA around 3.70 and around 30 saves. He should be a nice pickup in your fantasy league.

This move could benefit Toronto in the long- term as well. If Gregg continues to pitch well he could bring back a nice return if Toronto falls out of the division race. General Managers tend to overrate the save stat so I think it is possible a team overpays for a reliever like Gregg. Toronto could do something similar to what Billy Beane did in the early 2000s and sell off closers for prospects. They also have Jason Frasor and Scott Downs who could net a nice return at the deadline if the team falls out of contention.

The objective is to get more base runners on in front of the teams better hitters. In this case Cedeno or Crosby would be batting in front of Akinori Iwamura and Andrew McCutchen. Those in the mainstream media are not necessarily fond of the idea. They often dismiss it and claim it as an act of desperation. They claim the “second leadoff man” idea does not work. They are wrong in their assessment. According to Tom Tango’s “The Book” you can put the pitcher in the 8^th spot and gain a couple runs over the course of the season. This one move won’t make the Pirates division contenders, but it does help. The point of the move is to optimize the lineup the best you can and this move does that.

Considering all the information that is out there, I’m surprised more teams don’t do this. A couple runs over the course of a season is not a lot, but it is something. Unfortunately, the Pirates probably won’t win enough for the move to be accepted, but I think more teams should be doing what the Pirates are doing.

The Twins were leading 4-3 going into the bottom of the 11^th. Mark Kotsay led off the inning by striking out. Then Alex Rios followed with a single. This is where my problem begins. I’m generally against the idea of trying to steal bases. I get the idea of trying to get into scoring position, but for me I think there is too much risk involved.

According to “The Book” by Tom Tango a runner on first base with 1 out the team has a run expectancy of .573 runs per inning. Alex Rios attempted to steal 2^nd base. He was thrown out. Now they have no men on with 2 out. A team can be expected to score an average of .117 runs per inning. Him being thrown out the expected number of runs decreased by .456 runs. Even if Rios was safe he only increased the expected number of runs by .152 per inning. On average stolen bases are worth only .174 runs and getting caught stealing is worth -.467 runs. I think this shows that the risk is worth more than the reward in regards to stealing bases.

To make matters worse Omar Vizquel followed with a single. I know you can’t assume Vizquel gets the same pitch, but for arguments sake they could have men on first and second with 1 out. A team can be expected to score an average of .971 runs per inning. Based on the percentages it’s likely the Sox tie the game if they don’t attempt to steal second base and Vizquel still gets on.

My point is not to criticize Ozzie Guillen or the Sox, but it’s to show that there is risk involved in trying to steal bases. If the Sox or any other team hopes to win they should be more careful on the base paths. I think most teams would be better off playing the percentages.

I think this a good move for the Blue Jays. Lind put up a line of. 305/. 370/. 562 for 2009. That was good for a 3.7 WAR. His defense did hurt his value as he posted a -8.1 UZR in left-field last year. So they are moving him to DH to hide his glove. The move from left field to DH is a difference of 10 runs. So he is probably around the 2.5 WAR area as a designated hitter, which is above average. 2.5 win players can expect to earn a deal around 2 years 20 million in free agency, so I think the Blue Jays are getting good value here. The Jays are also protecting themselves down the road as well. They haven’t guaranteed him anything beyond a buyout in 2014. If he is still going strong into his late twenties, the Jays can keep him and if not they can let him go.

Overall, I think this is a good move for the Blue Jays.  The Jays need to be efficient in order to compete with teams like the Red Sox and the Yankees. This move is one step closer toward the Blue Jays being competitive.

Had Beckett reached free agency I think he would have gotten a deal similar to what John Lackey got, which was 5 year $82 million. So I think the Red Sox got some good value here.  Beckett has been worth more than 5 wins the last three seasons. His injury concerns that plagued him in the past appear to be gone as well. He has averaged around 30 starts the past three seasons. He has pitched close to 200 innings a season in that period as well.  If he can sustain his ground ball rate and lower his home-run rate slightly he should continue to be a great pitcher.

This is a great deal for the Red Sox. They now have four of their most valuable pitchers in Beckett, Lackey, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz signed through 2014.

Sweeney posted a line of  .293/.348/.407 with a wOBA of .330. Those are not eye-popping numbers offensively. His main value comes from his defense.  He showed the ability to play above defense in all three-outfield spots. His best position according to UZR was right field where he was 15.5 runs above average. Overall he was worth 24 runs above average with the glove. That’s equal to 2.4 wins, which is fantastic. That is close to Franklin Gutierrez territory.

He is slated to be the starting right fielder for the Oakland Athletics. The move to right field may hurt his value somewhat. The shift from center field to right field is a difference of 10 runs or 1 win. His bat may not hold up well compared to other right fielders, but his glove should be much better there. I still think he has the ability to improve offensively due to his ability to make contact. His contact percentage of 88.6 was well above average. I still think he will be in the 3-4 win range, which is great for the money he is making.

People like to underrate Billy Beane because he hasn’t won a world series yet, but I still think he’s one of the best GM’s out there. He’s able to put a competitive on the field most years without much of a budget. He saw that defensive was being undervalued by most teams and was able to capitalize on the market inefficiency. He saw something in Sweeney that the White Sox may not have valued as highly. He’s quietly putting a team together that can make a run at the AL West with a $50 million payroll.

If Oakland can win the AL West this season you may seem teams pay more for defense much like teams paid more for OBP in the early 2000′s.

With Chone Figgins going to Seattle it appears the Angels are going with Wood to start the season at third base. Figgins had a great season last year so replacing him is not going to be easy. He has had some time at the big league level. Unfortunately, he has not done much in his limited opportunity. In 2008 where he got a 150 at – bats he only managed to put up a line of .200/.224/.327. Like I mentioned previously he has put up good numbers in the minors so I can see why the Angels want to take a look at him.

That being said, I do have some concerns about him succeeding at the big league level. He has struggled to make contact during his brief tenure in the majors. He has struck out 33 % of the time. You can live with strikeouts if you walk enough and unfortunately he has only walked three percent of the time. His contact percentage is at 68.5 % for his career and the league average is around 80%. If this trend continues he is going to have trouble succeeding at the big league level. I have my doubts that he will be able to make enough contact to be successful.

I’m not sure if they let Figgins go because they thought Wood could fill the void, but losing Figgins will hurt. The difference between Wood and Figgins is probably around 3 wins. The AL West figures to be the most competitive division in baseball and that decision could be the difference between reaching the post-season and waiting till next year.

He hired sabermetrics expert Tom Tango as a consultant. Tango is known for his novel The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. He came up with the statistic known as FIP, which evaluates pitchers based on the things pitchers can control. This is a good move for the Blue Jays and I didn’t even know about this move until I read the article in Sports Illustrated ranking the general managers.

The Blue Jays are in arguably the toughest division in baseball and don’t have the resources that the Red Sox and Yankees do. They have a farm system that is mediocre. They also have the Vernon Wells contract holding them back as well. So they need to be creative in order to put a winning product on the field. Hiring a guy to help with the statistical side of the game is a good start. They may be able to find value in players that most teams overlook, like what the Oakland A’s did in the early 2000s. This move won’t get a lot of coverage, but I think this is a move that can pay big dividends down the road.

With the addition of Tango and their increased emphasis on scouting, things seem to be moving in the right direction in Toronto.

Span put up a line of .311/.392/.415, which was good for a .359 wOBA and a 3.9 WAR. He is one of the premier leadoff men in baseball and the Twins got him signed to a reasonable contract. He should be an upgrade over Carlos Gomez in center field even though he is not quite the defensive player in center that Gomez was. He will make up the difference in defense with his bat. Him moving to center allows Ron Gardenhire the option to put Jason Kubel in left, which would be an improvement over Delmon Young.

If the Twins are able to re-sign catcher Joe Mauer to go along with Justin Morneau and Span they could have a good core offensively and that should make them contenders in the AL Central for the next few years.

I think it’s about time the Minnesota Twins have started re-signing their own players. They have let a lot of players walk in the past and it’s good for the Twins and their fans that the team is starting to spend money to keep their own players. It’s also a smart move because it locks Span up through 2014 without the risk of going to arbitration.

Aside from the John Grabow signing the Cubs bullpen is relatively young and inexpensive. One of the criticisms of GM Jim Hendry is that he overpays for middle relievers, which I agree with to an extent. Then when he decides to go young in the bullpen he still finds his critics. It seems as if he cannot do anything right. I think going young in the bullpen is smart. Relievers are not all that valuable in terms of WAR dollars. Even the best ones are not worth the money they get due to the small sample. Since relievers are a crapshoot to begin with, I don’t see the point in spending a lot of money on relievers. Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes are reminders why it is not a good idea to spend big money on relievers. Most teams give their young guys a chance to play and I think this is a good chance to find out what we have. Relievers can usually be found from within. Pitchers like Jeff Stevens and Esmailin Caridad have good track records in the minors. Obviously the majors are a different game altogether, but I think there is a good enough track record to warrant a shot.

The bullpen should get a boost when Ted Lilly comes back and one of Carlos Silva, Jeff Samardzija, or Tom Gorzelanny goes to the bullpen. I don’t think any team is going to run away with the division and I think the Cubs can afford to give some of the younger guys a chance. So I’m okay with starting the season with what they have. If it turns out they need a reliever for the stretch run I’m not opposed to giving up C level prospects to get a reliever. If any team is asking for more than that I would stick with what I have. One thing the Cubs do have going for them is that they have a good pitching coach in Larry Rothschild. They also have a good track record with developing pitchers so I think it’s reasonable to expect one or two of the young guys to step up.

This could be the Cubs fan in me talking, but I think they deserve the benefit of the doubt as far as pitchers go. They seem to have questions regarding their pitching going into the season and it usually works out.