Now, I have a hard time believing this is a real rumor at all, since almost everyone involved has come out and said it is completely false, but just for the sake of argument, let’s take a look at how this trade could work for the Cardinals and Phillies.

Albert Pujols is pretty easily the best baseball player in the world, but Ryan Howard is no slouch. Here’s how they compare in different aspects of the game.

Offense

Pujols is obviously a beast. He has a career .416 wOBA, and has had a wOBA over .450 three times. Fantastic. He has been worth over 70 runs with the bat in each of the last two seasons. His wRC+ has never been lower than 152, with his career average being 173 (wRC+ is set up so that 100 is average and any number above or below 100 is that percent above/below average. So, a wRC+ of 101 means the player would be 1% better than average).

For those that are less sabermetrically inclined, Pujols’ traditional Triple Crown stats have averaged 41 HR, 124 RBI, and a .334 AVG in his nine major league seasons.

Simply put; he’s the best.

Howard, however, is no pushover at the plate. He’s posted a career .396 wOBA crossing the .400 wOBA mark once, in 2006. His batting values have been fairly sporadic through his career, thus far, but he’s had a 141 wRC+ for his career. Obviously, he’s a far cry from the level Pujols is, but he’s a very productive offensive player.

His Triple Crown stats look like 37 HR, 107 RBI, and a .279 AVG for his career.

Defense

Pujols is touted as one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball, and for good reason. Although his last two seasons have shown decline from his 2007 season, in which he posted an 18.8 UZR. That’s almost two full wins of defense, alone. His 2009 UZR was an unimpressive 1.3 runs, but he’s got the tools and the determination to be among the best in the league, once again.

Defense has never been Howard’s strong suit, but in the past few years he’s turned himself into a decent first baseman. In 2008, he posted his career high 2.8 UZR, which is probably his ceiling going forward.

Baserunning

Pujols tends to put up a surprising amount of stolen bases each year, but his baserunning in general is about average. Baseball Prospectus has a statistic called EQBRR, which stands for Equivalent Base Running Runs and is a combination of stolen bases and different types of base advancement. Pujols has been around 0 for his career, with some seasons above and some below average.

Howard’s baserunning ability is easily his most limited skill. He’s posted EQBRR numbers under -3 for most of his career.

Pujols is obviously the superior player. The question becomes one of money. Howard is due to make $7 million more than Pujols is over the next two years, but Pujols will undoubtedly command more money than Howard on an extension. If the Cardinals thought they couldn’t afford Pujols, or that they didn’t want to risk plunking almost 40% of their payroll on him and Holliday with a fairly weak farm system behind them, they may actually entertain trading for Howard. The money they would save could help in fielding a good team around Howard, something that might not be possible if Pujols gets $30 million per year, like some think he will.

Personally, I wouldn’t make the deal unless I was assured that ownership wouldn’t raise payroll to acomodate the new extension. If two players are taking up between 30 and 40% of the payroll space, it’s hard to imagine fielding a successful team around them unless you have strong support in the minor league system. Cardinals fans, I’m sorry, but your farm system just isn’t that system right now. In fact, Beyond The Box Score just ranked the Cardinals’ farm system dead last in the majors. Now, I don’t agree with that assessment since the Astros are worse off by a pretty wide margin, but the Cardinals are in the discussion.

My conclusion is that it might behoove the Cardinals to try to move Pujols given the right situation

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I would be SHOCKED if Joe Mauer wasn’t being shopped…just in case. If the Twins and Mauer stall on talks, and the Twins become afraid Mauer leaves, they’re ONLY real option is to trade Joe Mauer. I know, I know. It hurts to even think about. Unfortunately, that’s the way the game is now, and if some team comes calling with 5 of their best prospects, how can the Twins not consider it? Not listen to it? If they did end up trading Joe Mauer- obviously they’re fan base would probably mutiny the team, people would move out of the city, and a great turmoil would suffice. Okay- I’m going a little overboard with the last couple statements, but seriously- is it IMPOSSIBLE to think Joe Mauer CAN’T 100% be traded by the deadline if no offer is accepted?

In Baseball, nothing is impossible

All things considered I really like this signing for them. I know a lot of people will look at the dollar amount and think otherwise. I think this is a win-win situation for Oakland. If he proves himself healthy and pitches toward his career norms, he is worth more than the $8 million. Putting Sheets with Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Justin Duchscherer might be enough to get Oakland into the discussion for the division. If the A’s fall out of it and Sheets is healthy he can bring a nice package in return at the deadline. If he falters or gets hurt, it was only a one-year deal. Oakland does not have a lot of huge contracts on the team and they can afford to give Sheets $8 million. I fail to see the downside in this deal for the A’s.  Honestly, I don’t know why more teams don’t do what Oakland is doing. I think it is smart to sign players like this and trade them at the deadline.

Well, today Jim Bowden tweets “Ben Sheets negotiations, according to reliable sources, are heating up with teams most interested … the Rangers, Mets, Mariners, A’s and Cubs.”

Also, on MLB Live with Bowden and Joe Castellano, Bowden reported that his sources tell him that Sheets would like to pitch for the Cubs.

Just rumors, so far, but it seems teams are moving on Ben Sheets with pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training in just 3 short weeks.

So will the 2010-11 off-season give us more stories?

There are a few more bigger names becoming free agents, but how many will test the open market or be traded by the mid-season trade deadline? Let’s take a look at some of these teams and how their paths could play out:

• Joe Mauer: Maybe one of the biggest names on the market after a 2009 MVP season. Mauer is sure to land a gigantic deal, that is, unless he remains a Twin. Minnesota is his hometown. I expect Mauer to take a hometown discount and stay with the Twins longterm, even if it means passing up on a extra $50-70 million if he took offers from the Red Sox or Yankees.
• Carl Crawford: Crawford has a lot of years left in his career and at age 28 may just be hitting his prime. With many years of MLB service left, he most likely will not remain with the small market Tampa Bay Rays. As Brett Rosin wrote, I would look for Crawford to be traded before the trade deadline, as the Rays cannot afford to lose him for nothing and center field prospect Desmond Jennings is right around the corner.
• Jayson Werth: After signing a sub-par contract with the Phillies two years ago, Werth is due for a big payday after the 2010 season. His back to back seasons of 24 and 36 home runs and two seasons of 20 stolen bases, with the addition of his good fielding ability is more than enough to land him a long term deal. But the Phillies have expensive contracts invested in several other positions, such as with Utley, Howard and Halladay. Werth will most likely test the open market and find himself a suitor for a contract somewhere between what Jayson Bay and Matt Holliday were given this season.
• Victor Martinez: If Mauer remains a Twin as expected, Martinez becomes the biggest name catcher on the market next season. The only way I see Martinez leaving the Red Sox is if Mauer does test the open market. In this case, the Yankees and Red Sox battle out for Mauer, with the loser landing Martinez. Not a horrible consolation prize.
• Carlos Pena: Back to the small market Rays. When Pena began hitting his stride a couple years ago, it was expected he would land a big contract. The same could happen next off-season, but I expect Pena will remain with the Rays. I also don’t see a scenario where Pena gets traded, as the Rays owe him a $750,000 if traded after the 2009 season.
• Derek Jeter: I don’t see any way Jeter leaves New York. He started his career in pin-stripes and should retire in pin-stripes.

There are a few other big names on the market next season, including Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee and Ted Lilly. Beckett and Lee should each receive long term contacts and so could Lilly, barring any setbacks in his return from surgery following the 2009 season.

The move all but ensures that Scott Podsednik will not be brought back to the South Side next year, as the Sox have now found the leadoff hitter they were looking for.

The 32-year-old Pierre joins Omar Vizquel, Mark Teahen, Andruw Jones and J.J. Putz as new members to the Black and White “Good Guys,” as general manager Kenny Williams has made a flurry of moves thus far this offseason.

Since the Dodgers traded for Manny Ramirez at the deadline in 2008, Pierre has been the odd man out in the L.A. outfield, with Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp filling in around Ramirez. Pierre did appear in 145 games last year, but only found his way into the starting lineup 76 times. He hit .308 on the season with 30 stolen bases and 57 runs. He started every game in left field when Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for violating the MLB’s drug policy, hitting .318 with 21 stolen bases and a .381 on-base percentage in that time.

Pierre is also familiar with White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, who was the third base coach for the Florida Marlins in 2003 when they won the World Series. Pierre was the leadoff hitter for the team that year.

Late last season, Williams also traded for starting pitche Jake Peavy and claimed outfielder Alex Rios off waivers. Having those two guys healthy all season with the addition of the five veteran offseason moves, the Sox might just be the team to beat in the AL Central in 2010.

They lose right fielder Jermaine Dye to free agency, but Pierre will help close that gap, as he will either man centerfield with Rios moving to right, or Pierre will take over left field and shift Carlos Quentin to right field. Andruw Jones and veterans Mark Kotsay and Jayson Nix will work their way into the outfield rotation as well.

The Teahen trade moves superstar-in-the-making Gordon Beckham to second base, giving the lineup a slight power threat from the left side of the plate in a mostly right-handed hitting lineup. Putz should figure in as the right-handed setup man, filling in for the departed Octavio Dotel and D.J. Carrasco. Matt Thornton retains his position as the left-handed setup man, with Bobby Jenks closing out the games.

The Sox also carry over A.J. Pierzynski, Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez, providing pitchers with a tough out in each spot in the order.

The addition of a healthy Peavy atop the rotation will also help take the strain of Mark Buehrle, who faded slightly down the stretch following his perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Though the Pierre deal will likely be Williams’ last move this offseason, the White Sox have the pieces in place to challenge the Minnesota Twins in ’10, even if it takes 163 games, which seems to be the only way the AL Central is decided nowadays.

70 million for Bay over 5 years sure beats 110 over 6 for Holliday. A trade for Adrian Gonzo and then an extension of something along Bay’s money would make some sense. Signing Aroldis Chapmen to 15-25 million would make sense. You could let Josh Beckett walk  after 2010 if you have too in favor of Casey Kelly or Mike Bowden which would give you a top 5 of- Lackey/Lester/Dice K/Kelly/Bowden/Chapmen in 2011. You could save some money by not bringing back Papelbon and moving Daniel Bard to the closers roll. David Ortiz won’t be resigned so his money is off the books. Mike Lowell’s deal will be off the books, so there will be a stream of revenue on it’s way in as the Red Sox are a money making machine. So again I ask- if your Jason Bay- is that extra 10 million over 1 year worth it? And I ask again- if your the Red Sox, and you want to compete with the Yankees who I think are still the frontrunners to land Holliday, is 1 year and 5-10 million worth losing Bay? This relationship makes to much sense for Boston to go elsewhere. If Lackey and Chapmen both sign, Adrian Gonzalez makes to much sense to NOT give up Buchholz and Bowden/Casey Kelly. Is giving Adrian Beltre 50-60 million to play third worth it? I don’t think so. I think that would be a horrible move. Julio Lugo horrible. Let the ripple effects begin.

Update- John Lackey has agreed to a 5 year 85 million dollar deal!

Last winter, Mark Teixeira spurned the Sox for the evil empire, and this could be Boston’s big counter. With the loss of Lowell, this likely means the Sox are going to go after a third basemen in the likes of Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre, or even Pedro Feliz or they’ll move Youk across the diamond to third for good and bring  prospect Lars Anderson to the mix at first. Either of those wouldn’t be terrible moves, but they don’t scream “Here we come Yankees!”

After the Yankees successfully landed Curtis Granderson, Boston surely doesn’t want to leave the winter meetings without making a splash which is why I firmly believe Theo Epstein is going to make a run at Adrian Gonzalez. It obviously would be a heck of a trade and THAT would scream “here we come Yankees!” If my gut feeling is right, Clay Buchholz could be the centerpiece in the deal along with Michael Bowden or Casey Kelly. Boston has a heck of a farm system so I believe they’ll be able to land Gonzo without much difficulty if that is in fact the way their going and frankly- why wouldn’t it be? Adrian Gonzalez would be a monster in Fenway and frankly- as of right now- I don’t think they can compete with the Yanks with an aging Papi. They’re offseason could look alot like the Yanks last year with Matt Holliday/Jason Bay and/or Adrian Gonzalez and/or John Lackey and/or Roy Halladay.

If they can land Bay/Holliday and complete  it with Adrian Gonzalez? Look out. I just can’t sit here and believe that Theo Epstein is going to allow Brian Cashmen to beat him in a second consecutive offseason. Adrian Gonzalez- you should start packing.