Now, I have a hard time believing this is a real rumor at all, since almost everyone involved has come out and said it is completely false, but just for the sake of argument, let’s take a look at how this trade could work for the Cardinals and Phillies.

Albert Pujols is pretty easily the best baseball player in the world, but Ryan Howard is no slouch. Here’s how they compare in different aspects of the game.

Offense

Pujols is obviously a beast. He has a career .416 wOBA, and has had a wOBA over .450 three times. Fantastic. He has been worth over 70 runs with the bat in each of the last two seasons. His wRC+ has never been lower than 152, with his career average being 173 (wRC+ is set up so that 100 is average and any number above or below 100 is that percent above/below average. So, a wRC+ of 101 means the player would be 1% better than average).

For those that are less sabermetrically inclined, Pujols’ traditional Triple Crown stats have averaged 41 HR, 124 RBI, and a .334 AVG in his nine major league seasons.

Simply put; he’s the best.

Howard, however, is no pushover at the plate. He’s posted a career .396 wOBA crossing the .400 wOBA mark once, in 2006. His batting values have been fairly sporadic through his career, thus far, but he’s had a 141 wRC+ for his career. Obviously, he’s a far cry from the level Pujols is, but he’s a very productive offensive player.

His Triple Crown stats look like 37 HR, 107 RBI, and a .279 AVG for his career.

Defense

Pujols is touted as one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball, and for good reason. Although his last two seasons have shown decline from his 2007 season, in which he posted an 18.8 UZR. That’s almost two full wins of defense, alone. His 2009 UZR was an unimpressive 1.3 runs, but he’s got the tools and the determination to be among the best in the league, once again.

Defense has never been Howard’s strong suit, but in the past few years he’s turned himself into a decent first baseman. In 2008, he posted his career high 2.8 UZR, which is probably his ceiling going forward.

Baserunning

Pujols tends to put up a surprising amount of stolen bases each year, but his baserunning in general is about average. Baseball Prospectus has a statistic called EQBRR, which stands for Equivalent Base Running Runs and is a combination of stolen bases and different types of base advancement. Pujols has been around 0 for his career, with some seasons above and some below average.

Howard’s baserunning ability is easily his most limited skill. He’s posted EQBRR numbers under -3 for most of his career.

Pujols is obviously the superior player. The question becomes one of money. Howard is due to make $7 million more than Pujols is over the next two years, but Pujols will undoubtedly command more money than Howard on an extension. If the Cardinals thought they couldn’t afford Pujols, or that they didn’t want to risk plunking almost 40% of their payroll on him and Holliday with a fairly weak farm system behind them, they may actually entertain trading for Howard. The money they would save could help in fielding a good team around Howard, something that might not be possible if Pujols gets $30 million per year, like some think he will.

Personally, I wouldn’t make the deal unless I was assured that ownership wouldn’t raise payroll to acomodate the new extension. If two players are taking up between 30 and 40% of the payroll space, it’s hard to imagine fielding a successful team around them unless you have strong support in the minor league system. Cardinals fans, I’m sorry, but your farm system just isn’t that system right now. In fact, Beyond The Box Score just ranked the Cardinals’ farm system dead last in the majors. Now, I don’t agree with that assessment since the Astros are worse off by a pretty wide margin, but the Cardinals are in the discussion.

My conclusion is that it might behoove the Cardinals to try to move Pujols given the right situation

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I would be SHOCKED if Joe Mauer wasn’t being shopped…just in case. If the Twins and Mauer stall on talks, and the Twins become afraid Mauer leaves, they’re ONLY real option is to trade Joe Mauer. I know, I know. It hurts to even think about. Unfortunately, that’s the way the game is now, and if some team comes calling with 5 of their best prospects, how can the Twins not consider it? Not listen to it? If they did end up trading Joe Mauer- obviously they’re fan base would probably mutiny the team, people would move out of the city, and a great turmoil would suffice. Okay- I’m going a little overboard with the last couple statements, but seriously- is it IMPOSSIBLE to think Joe Mauer CAN’T 100% be traded by the deadline if no offer is accepted?

In Baseball, nothing is impossible

The move all but ensures that Scott Podsednik will not be brought back to the South Side next year, as the Sox have now found the leadoff hitter they were looking for.

The 32-year-old Pierre joins Omar Vizquel, Mark Teahen, Andruw Jones and J.J. Putz as new members to the Black and White “Good Guys,” as general manager Kenny Williams has made a flurry of moves thus far this offseason.

Since the Dodgers traded for Manny Ramirez at the deadline in 2008, Pierre has been the odd man out in the L.A. outfield, with Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp filling in around Ramirez. Pierre did appear in 145 games last year, but only found his way into the starting lineup 76 times. He hit .308 on the season with 30 stolen bases and 57 runs. He started every game in left field when Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for violating the MLB’s drug policy, hitting .318 with 21 stolen bases and a .381 on-base percentage in that time.

Pierre is also familiar with White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, who was the third base coach for the Florida Marlins in 2003 when they won the World Series. Pierre was the leadoff hitter for the team that year.

Late last season, Williams also traded for starting pitche Jake Peavy and claimed outfielder Alex Rios off waivers. Having those two guys healthy all season with the addition of the five veteran offseason moves, the Sox might just be the team to beat in the AL Central in 2010.

They lose right fielder Jermaine Dye to free agency, but Pierre will help close that gap, as he will either man centerfield with Rios moving to right, or Pierre will take over left field and shift Carlos Quentin to right field. Andruw Jones and veterans Mark Kotsay and Jayson Nix will work their way into the outfield rotation as well.

The Teahen trade moves superstar-in-the-making Gordon Beckham to second base, giving the lineup a slight power threat from the left side of the plate in a mostly right-handed hitting lineup. Putz should figure in as the right-handed setup man, filling in for the departed Octavio Dotel and D.J. Carrasco. Matt Thornton retains his position as the left-handed setup man, with Bobby Jenks closing out the games.

The Sox also carry over A.J. Pierzynski, Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez, providing pitchers with a tough out in each spot in the order.

The addition of a healthy Peavy atop the rotation will also help take the strain of Mark Buehrle, who faded slightly down the stretch following his perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Though the Pierre deal will likely be Williams’ last move this offseason, the White Sox have the pieces in place to challenge the Minnesota Twins in ’10, even if it takes 163 games, which seems to be the only way the AL Central is decided nowadays.

Last winter, Mark Teixeira spurned the Sox for the evil empire, and this could be Boston’s big counter. With the loss of Lowell, this likely means the Sox are going to go after a third basemen in the likes of Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre, or even Pedro Feliz or they’ll move Youk across the diamond to third for good and bring  prospect Lars Anderson to the mix at first. Either of those wouldn’t be terrible moves, but they don’t scream “Here we come Yankees!”

After the Yankees successfully landed Curtis Granderson, Boston surely doesn’t want to leave the winter meetings without making a splash which is why I firmly believe Theo Epstein is going to make a run at Adrian Gonzalez. It obviously would be a heck of a trade and THAT would scream “here we come Yankees!” If my gut feeling is right, Clay Buchholz could be the centerpiece in the deal along with Michael Bowden or Casey Kelly. Boston has a heck of a farm system so I believe they’ll be able to land Gonzo without much difficulty if that is in fact the way their going and frankly- why wouldn’t it be? Adrian Gonzalez would be a monster in Fenway and frankly- as of right now- I don’t think they can compete with the Yanks with an aging Papi. They’re offseason could look alot like the Yanks last year with Matt Holliday/Jason Bay and/or Adrian Gonzalez and/or John Lackey and/or Roy Halladay.

If they can land Bay/Holliday and complete  it with Adrian Gonzalez? Look out. I just can’t sit here and believe that Theo Epstein is going to allow Brian Cashmen to beat him in a second consecutive offseason. Adrian Gonzalez- you should start packing.

My take: It would have been a bad deal. If your going to trade your best prospect, you better be getting someone like Felix Hernandez back, period. Curtis Granderson, in my opinion, is horribly overrated to an extent and it just wouldn’t have made sense to go ahead with the move.

The Yankees have also talked to Detroit about Granderson. Detroit reportedly asked for Austin Jackson and Phil Hughes. That wasn’t happening either and the Tigers will not get anything done if they continue to try and hose someone.

Curtis Granderson is a good centerfielder with a reasonable contract, but the problem I see is that he is a glorified platoon hitter. He hit right- handed pitchers at a great rate as he posted a .897 OPS last year, but he only managed a .484 OPS against lefties. The Cubs already have Fukudome on the roster that struggles against lefties. The Cubs would have two outfielders that are useless against lefties. I don’t know if the Cubs can afford to have 2 platoon partners for Fukudome and Granderson. If Fukudome was not on the roster I would be open to acquiring Granderson. I think the Cubs would be better suited signing someone like Mike Cameron to play center assuming Milton Bradley is traded. Cameron has been more valuable than Granderson the last two seasons. With Cameron you get a great defensive center fielder with a good amount of power. You also do not have to give up any prospects to get him. You may be able to get for less years and a cheaper rate than Granderson.  In two years prospect Brett Jackson might be ready to get called up so Cameron is a good stopgap.

Edwin Jackson had a nice season in his first season in Detroit. He finished the season with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.2. However his second half numbers may be cause for concern. He had an ERA of 5.07 in the second half. He is also prone to giving up the homerun. He gave up 27 homeruns last season and that is with pitching a lot of his games at Comerica Park, which is more of a pitchers park than Wrigley is. I would be a little worried about him pitching in Wrigley with his tendency to give up the homerun. Throughout his career he has had control problems and if you combine that with him giving up the homerun you have an average pitcher. He’s a nice pitcher but he is not worth giving up some of your top prospects for. I think we have pitchers in house that can put up the numbers that Jackson is most likely to put up. If the Cubs were looking for a starting pitcher I would look for one with more upside such as: Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, or Justin Duchscherer. Duchscherer might be the more realistic option given the Cubs financial situation.

Another reason I would not do this deal is that I am high on both Vitters and Cashner. Josh Vitters is one of the few power bats in the Cubs minor league system. Aramis Ramirez has the option to opt out after the 2011 season so it would be nice to have an insurance policy in case Aramis leaves. Vitters reminds me of a younger Aramis Ramirez in that neither walked all that much, but neither one of them struck out all that much either. Aramis eventually became a more patient hitter and I think the same can be said for Vitters.  I also think Cashner has a chance to be something special. He has the potential to be an ace. The Cubs do not have a lot of pitchers of his caliber in their system. Worst case scenario he becomes a dominant closer. I think his arm is too great to give up for players like Granderson and Jackson. There are free agents out that are as good or better than Granderson and Jackson. I have no problem selling high on these prospects, but if the Cubs are going to trade these two I want it to be for someone like Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Kemp, or Grady Sizemore. I’m not giving up top prospects for slight upgrades.

I hope Hendry learns his lesson from the Peavy situation last off-season in that sometimes the best trades are the ones you do not make. In my opinion this would certainly qualify as one of those deals that you are better off not making.

7- Are the Tigers going to trade Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson? The cost cutting Tigers are supposedly shopping a couple of their better guys this off season, and both guys could be solid pieces to any puzzle, but do come with some risks. Granderson frankly had a pretty poor year last year and can’t hit lefties to save his life. He’s also got a decent contract to pay, but if you can get the Granderson of 2007-2008, it could be worth it. Edwin Jackson is a guy I would absolutely love to go after if I’m a GM. He was a highly touted prospect with a huge arm that can run it up to the triple digits. He took his lumps with Tampa Bay and the Dodgers, but Detroit really saw him make massive strides in learning how to pitch. He added a 2 seamer and figured out he didn’t have to throw 100 without knowing where it was going to get hitters out. His slider also made awesome strides and he’s still relatively young without huge mechanical red flags. I think Detroit would be making a huge mistake if they end up trading him, but if they can’t afford him down the round…might as well get as much as you can.

6- Let the Lackey Sweepstakes begin- John Lackey is the big name on the free agent market this winter, and will most likely seek a deal somewhere between Johan Santana’s (yea right) and AJ Burnett’s. Lackey is a guy who takes the mound with a fire and passion and bulldog like mentality and he’s got the stuff to back it up. He could be a legitimate ace for any team seeking an ace, but the question is…are teams willing to give him the money he wants? He does have a bit of a funky delivery that could explain his elbow and forearm issues. What I mean by that is, when you see the elbow come up above the shoulders getting into his power position, it could be access stress on the elbow and shoulder. So I think there’s definitely some risk here. I still think the Yankees are going to play coy with this one, and if they don’t get Halladay, they’ll make a serious run at Lackey especially if Andy Pettitte decides to leave.

5- Adrian Gonzalez to….who? Adrian Gonzo is a big time power hitting left handed first basemen who also plays the position at a gold glove level. He’s making under 7 million for the next two years so clearly, most teams would be willing to part ways with their better prospects to get him. There’s been rumors about him going to Boston and Chicago, and a couple other teams would make sense in terms of acquiring him, so I expect this to really pick up in a week or so even more than it does now. Who wouldn’t want this guy? He’s hitting 40 bombs in a pitchers park, can drive the baseball the other way with power, and has an outstanding plate vision. This could end up being a massive steal for anyone willing to part with their big time prospects.

Thanks for checking in- and come back to read my final analysis (4-1) of the winter meetings.

10- Where do the Cubs trade Milton Bradley? The soap opera that is Milton Bradley continues in Chicago as Jim Hendry is desperate to move this guy. According to multiple sources, the players absolutely can’t stand him, which is never a good thing. The fact this isn’t an MTV reality series really makes me scratch my head in wonder. Now, I’m all in favor of trading Bradley if you can make the team better, but I don’t know if it’s worth trading him to make the team worse. Players should be able to ignore the antics and go about their usual business. As a player, I never got along with every single one of my teammates and that’s sports. Saying that one player is breaking up the locker room is pretty childish and clearly the locker room isn’t as strong as it supposedly is.

9- Who overpays Chone Figgins? Chone Figgins is quite the interesting name out there, but after inconsistent seasons offensively, and a few injuries that have taken him off the field- who bites the bullet and gives the speedster 11-13 million per season? If I’m a GM, he’s a guy I absolutely 100% stay away from. He’s already in his 30′s and once his legs go, he could virtually be pretty worthless offensively. Sure he had a great year last year, but contract years do wonders for players. There’s to much of a risk to dish out that kind of money to a player that very well could be a Luis Castillo or worse in 4 years.

8- Where does Aroldis Chapmen land? The Cuban sensation recently hired the Hendricks brothers to represent him in negotiations that could land him an 8 figure a year salary. The wonder kid not only throws smoke, but is left handed and we all know that means his value goes up just due to that. With an offseason lacking big name pitchers, this makes the Chapmen chronicles much more interesting to follow.

Check back for Brett’s 7-5 top stories of the winter meetings.

Kevin Millwood head to Chicago?

A new rumor has surfaced regarding the inevitable trade of Milton Bradley between the Rangers and Cubs that would send Kevin Millwood to Chicago and Aaron Miles to Arlington along with Bradley. The rumor is being reported here, and as of now is not anything more than speculation.

Let’s take a look at the proposed deal from a production standpoint. Kevin Millwood was one of the cogs in the Braves’ starting rotation in the late 90s, including a phenomenal 1999 campaign. Since 2006, Millwood has been with the Rangers, and as you might expect from an aging pitcher in a hitter’s park, his fantasy stats haven’t been all that impressive (48-46, 4.57 ERA, 1.452 WHIP, 528 Ks). His strikeouts have been nice, but his BB% climbing above 3% has made his WHIP soar. Millwood has been durable, averaging 31 starts and 189 innings a year while in Texas.

Now, saying all of this might make Cubs fans shy away from an aging pitcher in decline. But, in real life value, Millwood is still better than any other players the Cubs have been linked to, which includes Pat Burrell, Luis Castillo, and Vernon Wells. It’s important to look at Millwood’s fielding independent statistics. His FIP (set to same scale as ERA) has bounced around from the high 3s to the high 4s in his years with the Rangers. His tRA has been in the mid-5s the past 3 seasons. To put those numbers in context, Zack Greinke led the majors in FIP with a 2.33 and a 2.81 tRA.  Millwood had a 2.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) last season and has had WARs in the 2.5-3.5 range for the past three seasons, which made him more valuable than Rich Harden and slightly less valuable than Randy Wells in 2009.

Kevin Millwood would be a great return considering the situation of Milton Bradley’s troubles, and Aaron Miles overall inability to play baseball well. In terms of fantasy baseball, Millwood is good only if you have a deep league or for playing matchups. In real life baseball, Millwood is a good 4^th or 5^th starter.