Gregg is off to a nice start for the Jays. He has gone 3 for 3 in save opportunities and has yet to allow an earned run and has an impressive 12.46 K/9. He had a problem with the homerun last year, but this year he is doing an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground in the early part of the season. He has a great groundball rate of 71.4%.  This is well above his career average of 39.1%, so expect some regression here.  His BABIP of .139 is not sustainable. I don’t expect him to pitch this well for the entire season, but I don’t expect him to be as bad as he was last year either. I think he should end up with an ERA around 3.70 and around 30 saves. He should be a nice pickup in your fantasy league.

This move could benefit Toronto in the long- term as well. If Gregg continues to pitch well he could bring back a nice return if Toronto falls out of the division race. General Managers tend to overrate the save stat so I think it is possible a team overpays for a reliever like Gregg. Toronto could do something similar to what Billy Beane did in the early 2000s and sell off closers for prospects. They also have Jason Frasor and Scott Downs who could net a nice return at the deadline if the team falls out of contention.

Vernon Wells added another home run (2-run shot) in the Jays loss last night in their home-opener last 8-7 in 11 innings. JC Romero will go against Gavin Floyd and the Chicago White Sox tonight at the Rogers Center in Toronto.

In other news, Adam Lind was resigned to a four year $18 million deal after a great year in 2009, and a good start to this season.

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I think this a good move for the Blue Jays. Lind put up a line of. 305/. 370/. 562 for 2009. That was good for a 3.7 WAR. His defense did hurt his value as he posted a -8.1 UZR in left-field last year. So they are moving him to DH to hide his glove. The move from left field to DH is a difference of 10 runs. So he is probably around the 2.5 WAR area as a designated hitter, which is above average. 2.5 win players can expect to earn a deal around 2 years 20 million in free agency, so I think the Blue Jays are getting good value here. The Jays are also protecting themselves down the road as well. They haven’t guaranteed him anything beyond a buyout in 2014. If he is still going strong into his late twenties, the Jays can keep him and if not they can let him go.

Overall, I think this is a good move for the Blue Jays.  The Jays need to be efficient in order to compete with teams like the Red Sox and the Yankees. This move is one step closer toward the Blue Jays being competitive.[picappgallerysingle id="1168908"]

In the coming weeks we will find out if the Rays are yet again for real, or if their pitching will fade away much like it did in 2009. The bats will stay hot, and the clock is ticking on Tampa keeping a legitimate shot at playoff contention. I say this because stars like Carl Crawford and Tony Pena may or may not be with the relatively small market team next season.

In another AL East showdown, the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays are already underway. Vernon Wells is looking to his his 5th home-run in four games, and the Orioles look to keep their bats hot depspite some poor relief pitching performances thus far. Baltimore is sitting at 1-2, while Toronto is at a cool 2-1 with a great offensive start to the year.

The Red Sox aren’t in a division showdown like the other four teams, they will be taking on the Kansas City Royals at 8:10 PM Eastern. Tim Wakefield is still in the starting rotation throwing his knuckleballs as wicked as ever. Lucky for the Sox, they won’t have to take on Greinke today, but he should get the start tomorrow against Josh Beckett. Beckett did officially get his contract extension for four more years. The Red Sox now have their core rotation locked up through 2014 at least.

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There is a serious difference in pitching between the five teams in the American League East, but every team on the division has power bats mixed with speed. Some just decide to come out of their shells at the wrong time. Without Roy Halladay this season, the Jays are seriously damaged on the pitching front. If the offense can pick it up and create some great production, this team could win 80+ games. That’s not saying a ton, but when you are in the rebuilding stages with a few people who are owed a lot of money, you appreciate the little victories where you can take them. Just look at the Rays from two years ago.

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He hired sabermetrics expert Tom Tango as a consultant. Tango is known for his novel The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. He came up with the statistic known as FIP, which evaluates pitchers based on the things pitchers can control. This is a good move for the Blue Jays and I didn’t even know about this move until I read the article in Sports Illustrated ranking the general managers.

The Blue Jays are in arguably the toughest division in baseball and don’t have the resources that the Red Sox and Yankees do. They have a farm system that is mediocre. They also have the Vernon Wells contract holding them back as well. So they need to be creative in order to put a winning product on the field. Hiring a guy to help with the statistical side of the game is a good start. They may be able to find value in players that most teams overlook, like what the Oakland A’s did in the early 2000s. This move won’t get a lot of coverage, but I think this is a move that can pay big dividends down the road.

With the addition of Tango and their increased emphasis on scouting, things seem to be moving in the right direction in Toronto.

Baltimore Orioles

Key losses- Chris Ray, Danys Baez

Key additions- Kevin Millwood, Garrett Atkins, Mike Gonzalez

Off-season grade- C+

Justification- Kevin Millwood provides some leadership for the Orioles young staff. He’s also very durable and that should keep the young staff from pitching too many innings. Garrett Atkins is a nice low risk/high reward signing. Mike Gonzalez stabilizes the back end of the bullpen.

Boston Red Sox

Key losses- Billy Wagner, Jason Bay, Casey Kotchman

Key additions- Mike Cameron, John Lackey, Adrian Beltre, Jeremy Hermida, Marco Scutaro

Off-season grade- A

Justification- It looks like Theo Epstein set out to improve the defense on this team and this off-season reflects that. They upgraded in center with Cameron. The Cameron signing also allows Jacoby Ellsbury to move to left field, where he is better defensively. Scutaro is an upgrade over Lugo. Boston’s defense could rival Seattle’s this season. The signing of Lackey gives the Red Sox one of the best rotations in baseball.

New York Yankees

Key losses- Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Phil Coke, Jerry Hairston

Key additions- Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson, Javier Vasquez

Off-season grade- A

Justification- They won the World Series so they did not have a lot of holes to fill, but the rich did get richer. Curtis Granderson is an upgrade defensively in center field. Nick Johnson will most likely take over for Matsui at the DH spot and he provides a nice on-base percentage. Javier Vasquez is a nice addition to an already stellar pitching staff.

Tampa Bay Rays

Key losses- Akinori Iwamura,

Key additions- Rafael Soriano

Off-season grade- C+

Justification- They were not very active, but they did upgrade the bullpen, which was a weakness last year.

Toronto Blue Jays

Key losses- Roy Halladay, Marco Scutaro

Key additions- Alex Gonzalez, Brandon Morrow

Off-season grade- C-

Justification- They lost one of the best pitchers in the game and did not get a major league ready pitcher that can fill in in 2010. I did like them getting Kyle Drabek from the Phillies though. They were probably smart in letting Scutaro walk and collecting the draft picks. They did not do much to improve the team in 2010, but they did make some good moves toward the future.

I think he’ll be in the rotation this year as a young stud. Rookie of the year potential? Yes please.

2) Zach Stewart-SP

Another outstanding young arm to help the rebuilding process. Very similar to Drabek in terms of stuff.

3) Brett Wallace-3B/1B

Traded twice has to hurt the ego a bit, but frankly- I don’t think he hit all that well, but he’s still got the talent to be pretty good. I still think he’s going to end up at first.

4) Chad Jenkins-SP

He’s flat out a good yong pitcher. I don’t think he has the stuff to be a 1-2 or but could be the trio of the newly looked Jays rotation by 2012 with Drabek and Stewart.

5) Josh Roenicke-CP

I don’t think he’s starting material. He’s got the stuff I think to be a good closer at some point.

6) Travis D’Amoud-C

Young but all signs point to him being a good hitter as he devlops. Can he call a solid game behind the plate?

7) Henderson Alvarez- SP

Two last name guy- gotta love it. Could be an innings eater at the big league level as a 4 or 5. Maybe a Jon Garland type guy.

8) Brad Mills- SP

Another guy that could end up being an innings eater. He also could be a 2 with good stuff. Tale of two seasons.

9) David Cooper-1B

At this point- at 27- where’s he gonna fall into place? It’s time for him to get it done.

10) Jake Marisnick-OF

Outfielder with all the tools. Well- we heard that before with Alex Rios and Vernon Wells and so far that didn’t turn out all that well for Toronto. Jake can be a different story but I’m holding my breath on this one.

This is what I believe Toronto would be getting in return for giving up Halladay-

From Seattle- Phillipe Aumont, Brandon Morrow

From Philadelphia- Dominick Brown, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor

Toronto- Won this deal. Somehow they got maximum value for their best pitcher. If they got Drabek and Aumont in the deal- it’s going to be worth it in terms of a rebuilding process. Michael Taylor and/or Dominick Brown only make it better.

Seattle- Won the deal. Cliff lee is going to compliment Felix so well and all of a sudden- are the M’s the now favorites in the American League west?

Philly- I know they got Halladay- but they also lost 7 prospects. I’m going to say they neither won the deal or lost the deal. 7 or 8 prospects for Lee and Halladay and then losing Lee is going to be steep on top of a 100 million dollar deal. However, obviously if Halladay stays healthy- the Phillies are once again the National League favorites.

I think he ends up going to the New York Yankees. Johnny Damon is a free agent and  was a liability defensively. Matt Holliday allows the Yankees to get younger and improves their offense and defense. Adding Holliday to a lineup that includes Jeter, Cano. Rodriguez, and Teixeira would cause ridiculous problems for opposing pitching staffs.They also have the most money to spend as that’s never a problem in New York. The San Francisco Giants could also use Holliday’s services, as they were last in on- base percentage and 26^th in runs scored. If the Giants are going to take the next step they need an offense to support their great pitching staff. The St Louis Cardinals have to be considered also but they do have to extend Albert Pujols so they may not have the money to afford both Pujols and Holliday so it might be wise if they spent that money to fill out of their rotation. The Red Sox could also be looking at him since Jason Bay is a free agent and they currently have a void in left field and have been known to spend money, but it just really depends on what Jason Bay wants to do as he’s been rumored to head to Seattle several times. If I had to guess, Holliday and Bay will end up in Boston and New York in some form or another.