So let’s move him to the 3-hole.

In a recent announcement Mets manager Jerry Manuel discussed his intentions of making the rehabilitated Reyes the team’s No. 3 hitter in front of the likes of David Wright and recently required Jason Bay. According to MLB.com, Reyes was quoted as saying, “I’ll do anything to help the team. He’s the boss. If he wants me to bat third, I will.”

Personally, I think it’s a terrible idea. With Reyes at the top of the order the Mets have the possibility of being one of the most potent offensive clubs in the league. He presents an immediate challenge for any opposing pitcher, and when on base changes the pitching strategy towards every hitter who follows him. Removing him from that role would only limit his capabilities and diminish his impact in the game. The only suitable replacements for the leadoff slot would be second-basemen Luis Castillo, or outfielder Angel Pagan. Although Pagan had his best season thus far last year, he cannot be considered to effectively supplement the absence of Reyes at the top given the fact he only had a small sample of at-bats last year. Castillo would be the better option, and notably has the most leadoff experience on the team with 4,067 appearances in the position, but his speed has moderated over the years and would not nearly bear the same influence as Reyes’s.

The move is only being considered because of the injury to Carlos Beltran, who won’t be in the lineup until at least May. It’s a rash compensation for a situation that actually does not need to be compensated for all that much. The addition of Jason Bay in itself is enough to provide an effective solution, as he is the means of protection for David Wright and vice versa. Starting off the game with the likes of Reyes, Castillo, Wright, and Bay is much more intimidating to an opposing team than that of Castillo, Pagan, Reyes, Wright/Bay. In addition, when Beltran eventually returns, only small adjustments would have to be made, in effect keeping the lineup as comfortable and familiar as possible.

A general rule of thumb: when you have the best leadoff hitter in the game, you keep him in the leadoff spot. Manuel would be wise to follow it.

This guy can do it all. 35 bombs, 20 steals, a .320 average, 115 runs, 115 RBIs, what more can you ask for? He’ll continue to put up monster numbers and is the clear No. 1 choice in outfield because he simply has better power numbers than Crawford. Cherish your time with Braun now (he’s clearly one of the top keepers in the league) because rumor has it Prince Fielder will leave Milwaukee when his contract is up after the 2011 season. If that happens, Braun will likely see nothing good to hit.

2. Carl Crawford TB

After a down 2008, Crawford returned to supermodel status in ’09, but instead of Pepsi ads and B-list movies with one of the Baldwin brothers (See: “Fair Game”), he instead turned in the best season of his career pretty much across the board. Crawford set a career high in steals (60), walks (51) and OBP (.364) while tying his career high in AVG (.305) and adding 15 homers, 68 RBIs and 96 runs. There are rumors that he is unhappy in Tampa, so if there is any truth to that, keep an eye on his numbers, they may slack off a la Manny Ramirez at the end of his Boston run.

3. Matt Holliday STL

Holliday was on holiday for much of his short-lived time in Oakland as he got off to a really rough start. Once he was traded to the St. Louis Pujols’, he suddenly woke up and St. Louie suddenly became a two-man town and a serious contender. Holliday made Nelly proud by putting up 13 homers and 55 RBIs in 63 games in the STL with a .353 AVG. As if those numbers weren’t eye-popping enough, Holliday didn’t even accumulate those totals in 30 more games with the A’s. He is clearly more happy hitting in the Midwestern weather, either that or he loves hitting behind Pujols. Whichever it is, draft with confidence, but don’t expect that .350 AVG to stick around. I’d say it’ll end up more like .320, but .330-.335 isn’t out of the question.

4. Grady Sizemore CLE

Everybody gets a mulligan, right? Sizemore was in desperate need of a mulligan after the season he had last year. After four straight years of continual improvement culminating in a 30-30 season with 98 walks, 90 RBIs and 101 runs in ’08, Sizemore suffered a variety of injuries that put him on more rehab stints than Tom Sizemore (no relation). Even when on the diamond, he wasn’t anywhere near his productive self. But, I expect a full turnaround. Sizemore will once again become an elite fantasy player, and his eye-popping numbers will come at a cheap price—he left a lot of owners with a sour taste in their mouths after drafting him last year, so everybody has been bad mouthing him for a full year. Draft with confidence.

5. Matt Kemp LAD

This may come as a surprise to some people, but it’s time for the world to take notice: Matt Kemp is an elite fantasy outfielder. The only thing he doesn’t do well is walk, but even still, 52 BBs in 159 games isn’t bad. He was just four homers away from the 30-30 club last year and he has made continual improvements in his game from year to year and at just 25, he still has his prime years ahead of him. Time for a guarantee? Matt Kemp will reach the 30-30 plateau in 2010. He’s firmly entrenched in the Top-5 Fantasy Outfielders and before it’s all said and done, he could take the cake as the best on this list.

6. Ichiro Suzuki SEA

It’s official, the man with only one name is starting to decline. At 36, Ichiro’s best years on the basepaths are behind him, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t rake. His .352 average last year was the second highest of his illustrious career, but that’s pretty much all he brings to the table now. His 26 steals and 88 runs were by far the lowest totals in his career and even though his power was up (11 HR and 31 2B), it’s not enough to make anybody salivate over him. Ichiro will win you some leagues with his average alone, but expecting much more than that in any other category, even in an improved Seattle lineup, isn’t too wise at this stage in his career. He still is elite, but just barely.

7. Jacoby Ellsbury BOS

Ellsbury’s play early in ’08 warranted a full-time job in center and made the Red Sox feel better about shipping Manny to Los Angeles. And boy did he run with his opportunity in ’09. He set career highs across the board, coming in at .301 with an astonishing 70 steals. He is a pretty good leadoff hitter hitting atop one of the best lineups in baseball and should score plenty of runs again. It’s not out of the question that he steals 80 bases or even more. If he continues to progress and get the green light, 100 may even be possible. He’s only 26 and he has plenty more years of stardom left, so if he’s available in a keeper league, scoop him up like kitty litter.

8. Jason Bay NYM

Bay can do it all and is probably the last of the elite outfielders. He turned a career year in ’09 (his 36 HRs and 119 RBIs were his best single-season totals) into a big payday with the Mets and should be one of the first outfielders off the board. He can steal a few bases, walk 100 times and he will have Jose Reyes and David Wright ahead of him with Carlos Beltran providing protection. A guy could do worse.

9. Justin Upton ARI

This may surprise some people, but just like with Matt Kemp, it’s time to take notice of these NL West outfielders. Upton was so highly touted out of high school that it made the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight look like child’s play. Everybody expected him to make an immediate impact for the D-Backs, and he didn’t in ’08. Everybody forgot that he was just a 20-year-old kid for much of that season. Heck, he couldn’t even buy a beer and he was five years away from becoming eligible to even rent a car to get him to the stadium. After a subpar ’08 campaign, everybody seemed to lay off and Upton was able to relax and put up a Top-10 fantasy OF season. He hit .300 with 26 bombs, 86 RBIs, 84 runs and 20 steals in just 138 games. Imagine a full season of those numbers and combine that with the progression he showed from ’08 to ’09 and his immense hype and you have yourself a superstar in waiting. The hype is back on: Upton is the man.

10. Curtis Granderson NYY

A lot of people are down on him, mostly because he strikes out so much and isn’t a prototypical leadoff hitter, but let them talk crap while you swoop in and snag him at a price that probably is cheaper than he’s worth. Granderson hi 30 bombs last year and stole 20 bases, a great power-speed combo. He only had 71 RBIs and 91 runs, but he spent his days in an underperforming lineup. Those days are over. He’s hitting in front of (or maybe directly behind Derek Jeter depending on if Giradi keeps DJ in the leadoff spot) Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. He will have plenty of opportunities to score and drive in runs and with the short porch in right field in the new Yankee Stadium, could exceed 30 homers. He has never stolen more than 26 bases in a season, but may run more with the Yankees, so a 30-30 season is not out of the question. The only area where he won’t help you is average, as .249 just doesn’t cut it for most people. But, in points leagues, he’s an icon and even in Rotisserie leagues, he can help you in every other area but average, which is why he’s not in the elite category.

11. Carlos Beltran NYM

Keep in mind that Beltran had knee surgery and probably won’t be ready for opening day. However, when he does come back, Beltran will provide a big boost to your fantasy lineup. His average has improved in four straight seasons, and thanks to an injury-plagued ’09 that caused him to miss half the season, will come on the cheap, real cheap. But, Beltran will be hitting behind Reyes, Wright and now Jason Bay, so he will have a million of opportunities to drive in runs (an exaggeration, but he could easily drive in 120 runs after he comes back with the way those three get on base). Beltran probably won’t ever reach 30-30 again, but he could easily throw in 20 steals and close to 30 home runs after he returns.

12. Jayson Werth PHI

I know, I’m surprise at this, too, actually. But, Werth’s numbers are right up there with any fantasy outfielder ahead of him and the only reason why he’s ranked as low as he is is because his career year came at 29 and it was the only year that he’s had that kind of success. But, if he puts up a season anywhere near last year’s (36 HR, 99 RBIs, 98 runs, 20 steals and even 91 walks), you’ll have struck fantasy gold with the likely sixth-10^th round pick that you could wait for him at. Heck, he may even still be around in the 11^th round, which would be like winning the jackpot. There’s some risk, but it seems pretty minimal and hitting in that lineup and that ballpark, Werth figures to prove his worth in at least the power categories.

13. Carlos Lee HOU

El Caballo is a run-producer, pure and simple. Look no further than his ’08 season (where he drove in 100 in just 115 games) for proof of that. But, the Astros’ lineup vastly underperformed last year and Lee didn’t have as many opportunities as he normally would have. Berkman, according to his career trends, should have a great year and Michael Jason Bourn is a bonafide leadoff man now, but even still, Miguel Tejada is gone and the rest of the Astros aren’t exactly the cream of the crop. Lee will still drive in 100, that much is guaranteed, and he will hit .300 or so with few strikeouts (only 100 combined in the past two seasons), but also few walks and runs and he no longer looks to be a factor on the bases. He’s still a solid option, but one with question marks.

14. B.J. Upton TB

Wow, he’s five spots below his younger brother? How many people would have seen that coming after the ’08 posteason B.J. turned in? Well, anybody who paid attention last year could have predicted this. Upton started the season with an injury and ended the season as a pain in the butt for some fantasy owners. He only hit 11 homers after putting on a home-run derby-esque performance in the ’08 playoffs and hit just. 241. He still stole 42 bases, however. The scary thing, though, is his average and decreasing plate discipline. After hitting .300 in 2007 and .273 in ’08, he dropped to the wrong side of .250 and his walks dropped 40 from ’08 to ’09. However, with all that said, I actually predict a great year from Upton. He’s going to figure out his power in the regular season sometime and he is only 25, so inconsistent averages and plate discipline are custom from the younger folk. He will steal you 45 bases, and could even steal 50, and this is the year that his power comes out for real. His average may not approach .300 again, or at least not for a while, but it should still be somewhat serviceable in 2010.

15. Nick Markakis BAL

Marky Mark-akis is one of the most underrated players in the Major Leagues and in fantasy leagues, especially points leagues. He hits 45-plus doubles a season, drives in 100 runs, scores 100, hits around .300 and slugs 20 or so homers. Last year was sort of a down year, but Markakis will be back on track in ’10. His 18 steals in ’07 came out of nowhere and have steadily declined since, but he should still be good for 5-10 swipes and though his walks are down (he walked 99 times in ‘08 because he was the only threat in the Baltimore lineup and thus, was pitched around a lot), Baltimore has an up-and-coming lineup and he should score and drive in more runs in ’10 and since less pressure will be on him to carry the load, he could be in for a career year.

16. Shin-Soo Choo CLE

The Choo Choo train finally found a permanent stop in the Majors for a full season after departing from Korea and making three separate short stops in the Big Show from ’05-’07. He had a great second half in 2008 and turned that into a full-time job in ’09, a job he ran with. Choo, who is just 27 (the age where the body reaches its physical peak and most MLB players have their best seasons) hit 20 homers, stole 21 bases, hit .300, reached base at a .394 clip, drove in 86 and scored 87. Wow, that’s production in literally every category you could ask for. He will only get better as he gets more accustomed to Major League life and as he approaches his prime, so he could easily be a Top-15 fantasy outfielder.

17. Michael Bourn HOU

Unlike his speedy cohorts like B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury, Bourn is pretty much a one-category fantasy stud. He is a blur on the basepaths (61 steals in ’09), but has virtually no power. He did have 42 extra base hits, but only three of those left the yard, so he is one of the few fantasy players worth drafting that will actually hurt you in the power department. And, after a terrible ’08 season at the plate, everybody was calling him just a burner, a guy who could only steal bases. But, he proved them wrong by nearly doubling his walks in ’09 and raised his average almost 60 points to .285, thus a 40-run increase in his scoring total, jumping from 57-97. He also just turned 27, so a career year may be in store. He won’t ever hit for power and won’t ever win a batting title, but he could score 100-plus runs with a .290-.300 average and could steal 80 bags.

18. Bobby Abreu LAA

He will be 36 by the time opening day rolls around, so there are obviously some question marks regarding how long he can really keep putting up Bobby Abreu-type seasons. The one sign indicating decline in production is that his 15 homers in 2009 tied for the lowest total he put up in a full season in his time in the Major Leagues. However, the rest of his numbers were right in line with career norms. With Abreu, you know what you’re going to get—15-20 bombs, 100 RBIs, no matter how many homers he hits, 25-30 steals, .290-.300 AVG, 90-100 runs and close to 100 walks. The only question is: how many more years will he continue with that kind of output? My guess is at least one, so draft with confidence in ’10, but don’t entertain the thought of hanging on to him in keeper leagues.

19. Manny Ramirez LAD

I really don’t know what you’re going to get from Manny from year to year. I mean, Manny just being Manny is a great mantra, but if you don’t know which Manny he will be, where does that leave you? It’s clear Manny has talent and is one of the best right-handed hitters of all-time at driving in runs. He’s clearly a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but at this point in his career, he is only motivated by money. You saw how he fell out of favor in Boston because he simply stopped trying. So, what can he do for you fantasywise? Will he hit 45 homers with 130 RBIs and a .330 AVG? Or will he end up with 20 homers, 85 RBIs and a .270 AVG. I honestly can’t help you with that anymore than I can tell you why the sky is blue or why Drew Barrymore is still getting acting gigs. He will be 38 by opening day, so draft with caution in that area too. Whatever way you look at it, he’s high-risk, high-reward.

20. Andre Ethier LAD

Ethier rounds out the only outfield that boasts all three starters on this list. With Juan Pierre now on the South Side of Chi Town, there is nobody there to limit time for any of these three Dodgers and though Ethier is ranked lowest of the trio on this list, he is still a very good fantasy outfielder. He’s only 28 and his 31 homers, 106 RBIs and 92 runs last year prove that he’s got of upside. The only issue last year was his unusually low .272 AVG, but his career norm in that category is .291, so don’t fret about it, it will return to normal in ’10.

21. Nelson Cruz TEX

OK, the first note on Cruz is that he’s maybe the streakiest fantasy player I have ever seen. After owning him last year, I can tell you that depending on the format of your league, that can be awfully frustrating. He will put up weeks where he steals five bags, hits seven homers and drives in 15 runs. Other weeks, he will have three singles and a run scored. It’s maddening if you’re a fantasy owner. Just be patient and trust that his final numbers will be fine. Also, his hot streaks are a big boost in head-to-head leagues that reward players who put up god-like weeks. Cruz will be 30 in July and hasn’t really had much success to his name in the Majors besides ’09, but he is for real and he could put up better numbers in each category in 2010 if he can stay healthy and not miss more than 30 games due to injury again.

22. Torii Hunter LAA

Hunter has intangibles that don’t help you in fantasy baseball, which sometimes boost his value in some leagues, but when broken down, he still puts up pretty good numbers. He set a new career high in AVG last year with .299, proving that he is still adapting as a player. Even at 34, he can still steals some bags, around 15-20, and he will hit 22-30 homers with 90 RBIs, but won’t ever score many runs because he’s never walked more than 50 times in a season. He will once again be hitting in the middle of the Angels’ lineup, most likely right behind Kendry Morales and Bobby Abreu. News that is even better than that for fantasy owners: his great season last year came in just 119 games, as he missed the other 43 due to injury. Imagine a full season of that production.

23. Andrew McCutchen PIT

Cutch is this high on this list for two reasons: multi category production and keeper league status. First things first, he’s only 23, and after a very veteran-like 2009 season, it is clear that Cutch will be a stud someday in the Majors, both in real life and in fantasy. He will help out in every category, and someday, he may be a 30-30 threat. But, now, he will just be a 23-year-old trying to put another season together. That season, however, could be .300, 20, 85 with 100 runs scored and 30 steals. He’s proven that he’s capable of that this year. Watch out for a sophomore slump, but Cutch is so naturally talented that he may just sidestep that as well.

24. Adam Jones BAL

Jones is also so high on this list because he is but 24 and boasts a promising career path. He made pretty good strides from ’08, his first full season, to ’09, his second year. Considering the first half he had, it’s not hard to get excited about what Jones could put up in the future, but his second half was downright awful. However, his pre-all star break numbers would project out to a .303 AVG with 194 hits, 110 runs, 94 RBIs, 24 HRs and 12 SBs over a full season, and that’s just dipping the toe in the water of what the uber-talented Jones could really be capable of.

25. Johnny Damon FA

I have to be honest, I was nearly completely lost as to who to put at the last spot that I discuss in depth. There are a handful of guys that are pretty interchangeable after Jones and McCutchen, but I think Damon has the most upside of those guys, depending on where he lands. He’s obviously more valuable in the Yankees’ lineup than most anywhere else, but with the Randy Winn signing, obviously he will not be returning to the Big Apple. So, this pick could fluctuate depending on where he ends up, but Damon is a solid veteran fantasy player, though at 36, he shouldn’t be on anybody’s keeper list. His speed may continue to decline, but he didn’t get caught stealing at all last year, so maybe his new manager will give him the green light more. Either way, he will supply a decent average with 20 or so homers, 75-80 RBIs and 100 runs. Not bad.

26. Josh Hamilton TEX—Has to prove to me that ’08 wasn’t at least a slight fluke

27. Carlos Quentin CWS—Played like a Top-25 OF in ’08, but can he stay healthy?

28. Hunter Pence HOU—Power/speed combo, but not the best in points leauges

29. Denard Span MIN—Solid in most categories, good average, will score a lot of runs

30. Shane Victorino PHI—Will get 30 or so steals with good average and runs

31. Nyjer Morgan WAS—Speed demon and really thrives atop Washington lineup

32. Raul Ibanez PHI—Career year from 37-year-old not exactly enticing

33. Juan Pierre CWS—Will have a good year leading off for ChiSox

34. Rajai Davis OAK—Rounding out the recent run of speed demons with high averages

35. Alex Rios CWS—Had some down years but I’m really high on him, has 1^st round talent

36. Nate McLouth ATL—Decent power/speed option, but not the best of those types

37. Alfonso Soriano CHC—My how the mighty have fallen, will he ever get back to 30-30 days?

38. Dexter Fowler COL—Cheap steals option from a young and improving player

39. Lastings Milledge PIT—Great talent but when will he realize it? Could be this year

40. Ryan Ludwick STL—He is for real, but his ’08 season was probably too much to expect

41. Mike Cameron BOS—Power/speed guy in a good lineup, but getting older

42. Brad Hawpe COL—Can’t hit lefties, but bashes righties, so if you have bench spots, plan accordingly

43. Kyle Blanks SD—Power machine, could hit 30-40 bombs in ’10, but that’s all he offers

44. Carlos Gonzalez COL—Played better down the stretch, great in keeper leagues

45. Jay Bruce CIN—Great talent, just slumped in ’09, will rebound in ‘10

46. Carlos Gomez MIL—I love him this year, fresh start could mean 40+ steals for cheap

47. Colby Rasmus STL—They love him and he’s hitting in front of Pujols/Holliday

48. Vernon Wells TOR—Been steadily declining since big contract, what happened?

49. Nolan Reimold BAL—Starting spot in Baltimore outfield his job to lose

50. Travis Snider TOR—Very young still, so will have some growing pains

51. J.D. Drew BOS—Great on-base guy for leagues that count that, but injury-prone

52. Jermaine Dye FA—Where will he land? The answer to that changes his value up or down

53. Brett Gardner NYY—Great speed option in good lineup, but will he flourish in full-time role?

54. Corey Hart MIL—Decent power/speed guy, but had a down year and doesn’t walk

55. Chris Young ARI—Could be good power/speed guy, but has had two really down years

56. Franklin Gutierrez SEA—Better in real life, but is steadily improving

57. Michael Cuddyer MIN—Solid power/RBI option in middle of MIN order

58. Milton Bradley SEA—Will rebound, but how high is his ceiling?

59. Nick Swisher NYY—Good power with a lot of walks, but low average

60. Chris Coghlan FLA—Rookie of the Year, but doesn’t provide much besides average

61. Coco Crisp OAK—I’m real high on him, I expect a full rebound year

62. Cameron Maybin FLA—Great talent but may be too young and inexperienced still

63. Josh Willingham WAS—Pretty good power numbers and decent average

64. Scott Podsednik KC—Rebound year last year, but what to expect this season?

65. Julio Borbon TEX—Starred in small taste last year, but is he ready full-time yet?

66. Matt Diaz ATL—Should turn in a good average in full-time starting role

67. Jeff Francoeur NYM—Should serve him well to hit in NYM lineup all season long

68. Cody Ross FLA—Good power and average options and he flies under the radar

69. Garrett Jones PIT—Stud down the stretch last year, but how will he be in full season?

70. Marlon Byrd CHC—Is he really worth a fantasy draft pick? Doubt it

71. Mark DeRosa SF—Versatility boosts value, but strictly in OF, he doesn’t cut it.

72. Juan Rivera LAA—Decent power, but not worth taking up an OF spot, except in deep leagues

73. Melky Cabrera ATL—Just not a good fantasy player, especially out of NYY lineup

74. David Murphy TEX—Always seems to find his way into the lineup

75. Kosuke Fukudome/Xavier Nady CHC—Not bad options if you have bench room and can play the matchups

The main question I pose is simply- does him signing with the Mets make them a contender to overthrow the Phillies in the NL east? My answer to that is …no.

Jason Bay is a good offensive presence. He’s a good hitter who can make you pay in a variety of ways offensively with the obvious home run power- as well as being able to drive the ball the opposite way. Hitting on the road didn’t phase him last year either with 21 homers coming away from Fenway. I also don’t think his defense is as bad as advertised as I think his UZR was a little biased with the fact that he was playing left field at Fenway. I’m not going to sit here and say Bay is over rated or anything along those lines because he’s not. I like Jason Bay- I think he’s a good to great major league hitter- but when you look at the team the Mets are fielding, was signing Bay needed? They already are locked into monster deals with Beltran, Wright, Johan, and Reyes is under contract at a good market price. Now supposedly the Mets didn’t have alot of money to deal with anyway so the question I have to ask is why would the Mets spend 66 million on a player that frankly wasn’t needed.

Look at how the Mets are set up especially in terms of their payroll and downfall. Their bullpen is pretty bad if not terrible. K Rod had better rebound this year or his deal is going to loom even worse than it already is. They have no starting pitching after Johan who by the way is coming off elbow surgery himself.  They don’t have a catcher, and are stuck with Luis Castillo who may or may not stay healthy next year. 66 Million is ALOT of money when your talking about these many holes within an organization. Why not take that 66 million and go after a John Lackey a little harder. Why not take that 66 million and save it for someone like Cliff Lee who will be a free agent in all liklihood at seasons end. Josh Beckett is another one in that same boat. Are they going to have the same money next year to make a run at one of those guys for 8 figures a year? I just don’t think Jason Bay was needed in terms of the dynamics the organization is in right now. They aren’t going to outmash the Phillies next year, and they sure as heck aren’t going to out pitch Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, or JA Happ. So why? It’s just a curious sign to me because Omar Minaya has been under tremendous pressure to make a big splash this offseason. It almost seams like he made the sign simply to please the fan base. Maybe he feels he has nothing to lose. I dont know. All I do know is that Omar Minaya has made a series of bad moves dating back several years. Look no further than the JJ Putz deal. You trade a series of prospects for a guy you don’t resign…uhhhhh?

Does Jason Bay make the Mets better offensively? Yes. Does he make them a threat to win the NL East let alone the World Series? No. At least not with the holes they still have. If they sign Ben Sheets and/or Eric Bedard- we’ll re-assess the situation but as of right now…Sorry Omar but I think you fumbled the ball again.

70 million for Bay over 5 years sure beats 110 over 6 for Holliday. A trade for Adrian Gonzo and then an extension of something along Bay’s money would make some sense. Signing Aroldis Chapmen to 15-25 million would make sense. You could let Josh Beckett walk  after 2010 if you have too in favor of Casey Kelly or Mike Bowden which would give you a top 5 of- Lackey/Lester/Dice K/Kelly/Bowden/Chapmen in 2011. You could save some money by not bringing back Papelbon and moving Daniel Bard to the closers roll. David Ortiz won’t be resigned so his money is off the books. Mike Lowell’s deal will be off the books, so there will be a stream of revenue on it’s way in as the Red Sox are a money making machine. So again I ask- if your Jason Bay- is that extra 10 million over 1 year worth it? And I ask again- if your the Red Sox, and you want to compete with the Yankees who I think are still the frontrunners to land Holliday, is 1 year and 5-10 million worth losing Bay? This relationship makes to much sense for Boston to go elsewhere. If Lackey and Chapmen both sign, Adrian Gonzalez makes to much sense to NOT give up Buchholz and Bowden/Casey Kelly. Is giving Adrian Beltre 50-60 million to play third worth it? I don’t think so. I think that would be a horrible move. Julio Lugo horrible. Let the ripple effects begin.

Last winter, Mark Teixeira spurned the Sox for the evil empire, and this could be Boston’s big counter. With the loss of Lowell, this likely means the Sox are going to go after a third basemen in the likes of Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre, or even Pedro Feliz or they’ll move Youk across the diamond to third for good and bring  prospect Lars Anderson to the mix at first. Either of those wouldn’t be terrible moves, but they don’t scream “Here we come Yankees!”

After the Yankees successfully landed Curtis Granderson, Boston surely doesn’t want to leave the winter meetings without making a splash which is why I firmly believe Theo Epstein is going to make a run at Adrian Gonzalez. It obviously would be a heck of a trade and THAT would scream “here we come Yankees!” If my gut feeling is right, Clay Buchholz could be the centerpiece in the deal along with Michael Bowden or Casey Kelly. Boston has a heck of a farm system so I believe they’ll be able to land Gonzo without much difficulty if that is in fact the way their going and frankly- why wouldn’t it be? Adrian Gonzalez would be a monster in Fenway and frankly- as of right now- I don’t think they can compete with the Yanks with an aging Papi. They’re offseason could look alot like the Yanks last year with Matt Holliday/Jason Bay and/or Adrian Gonzalez and/or John Lackey and/or Roy Halladay.

If they can land Bay/Holliday and complete  it with Adrian Gonzalez? Look out. I just can’t sit here and believe that Theo Epstein is going to allow Brian Cashmen to beat him in a second consecutive offseason. Adrian Gonzalez- you should start packing.

4) Felix Hernandez- staying or going? Extended or traded? This is one that is CLEARLY very much up in the air. Depending on who you talk to or what you read, King Felix is looking at an extension that could reach Carlos Zambrano or better like in terms of years and dollars. Can Seattle afford that? I have my doubts. If they can’t- they clearly need to trade him for the best of the best. This kid is outstanding and is going to get better. I think it’d be a mistake to not pay him, but if you can’t you can’t. I would imagine 15 teams be in the mix at least. Nonetheless, it’ll be interesting to hear what happens in terms of potential deals if any.

3) Jason Bay- The second biggest free agent this year is going to get his pay day. The question is, where does Bay want to go? He turned down an offer with Boston which wasn’t a surprise and that was rumored to be around 65 million over 5 years. If that’s the starting point, he’s going to get 75 from someone….or at least his agent thinks so. I have a feeling he ends up back in Boston, but he very well could end up in Seattle where he has a house and is from British Columbia. He could end up as a Yankee. Heck he could end up as a National who aren’t afraid to throw some dollars around as they made Mark Teixeira a 100 million dollar offer. I personally think he’s going to get 6 to 7 serious offers to consider…and that’s alot. Must be nice.

2) Roy Halladay- I would be shocked…SHOCKED if he’s not traded by the end of December let alone the end of the winter meetings. I don’t see how Toronto would still have value if they continue to wait. I once again see 4 or 5 teams being in talks, with the Red Sox and Yankees fighting again. The Dodgers and Angels could be in there, but I don’t think he goes to either team with Boston allowing that. Boston has the farm system so they’re definitely the favorite in my eyes. He’s the best pitcher on the market, and whatever team gets him will clearly be pleased with the workhorse mentality he brings.

Matt Holliday possibly headed to his fourth team in 3 years.

Check out Brett’s top 10 plots of the winter meetings 10-8 and 7-5.

Daniel Bard was taken 28th overall in the 2006 MLB draft out of North Carolina. Boston originally had this hard throwing right hander as a starter, but after scuffling for awhile- got smart and moved him to the bullpen. Bard has run with that oppertunity and found himself in Boston and their key set up guy down the stretch. He earned that role with a strong rookie campagin going 2-2 with 63 K’s to 22 walks in only48 innings of work. Hitters hit only .222 against him while he had a 11.48 K/9 IP ratio. I believe that the his improved command will lower his 1.28 WHIP as well as the 4 walks per 9 IP.  What’s not to like about a 24 year old kid who would do just as good a job as Papelbon if not better while making a WAY LESS more money? Boston has several other arms coming up through the ranks, but trading Papelbon opens up even more money to sign a Matt Holliday/Jason Bay and potentially a couple middle relief arms. Theo isn’t afraid to pull the trigger on a deal that might not be all that popular in the eyes of the Boston faithful, but this is one that should really be looked at as a strong baseball move if they can belly up and get it done. There’s plenty of teams in need of 9th innng help that would love to acquire the volitile Papelbon for a couple prospects and we all should know by now that the Boston system itself is one of the stronger ones out there. Don’t sleep on this rumor hitting full force come the winter meetings.

There’s a lot of hype out there that’s saying the Yankees aren’t going to be spending money on big named free agents this offseason. Who really believes that? I know I don’t. If Andy Petttitte decides to retire, there’s going to be a big hole in that rotation. Okay so they can move Phillip Hughes back to the rotation with Joba. Well, who gets the ball to Mariano in the 9th? Brian Bruney? Come on, let’s pump the brakes on that idea. Lets take a look at the Yankees rotation this offseason with Andy and without him.

Without him- CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Chien Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain…..Phillip Hughes? Andrew Brackman? Another free agent? Pedro Martinez the new daddy? Throw in an injury here or an injury there and all of a sudden, they’re going to be in trouble.

With him- CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain.

On paper that rotation looks pretty decent…does it not? What happens if I don’t know…AJ Burnett gets hurt? Or maybe Wang doesn’t come back strong? Joba battles some arm soreness?  Is it crazy to suggest that the Yankees will have to go through Boston next year who likely will be better than they were this year? This is why I have a sneaky feeling that John Lackey ends up in pin stripes this offseason. It flat out makes to much sense to just take a yahoo headline seriously.

John Lackey would bring a nasty 1-2-3 punch especially come next October. Can you really imagine walking into New York with a series against the Yankees facing CC, Lackey, and AJ Burnett? Not an easy task if you ask me. Seriously though, what team is going to over pay for John Lackey? What’s he done to warrant a contract like the one he’s going to get. He hasn’t won a Cy Young or anything and he’s been DL’d to start the year twice. So again, in this economy, whose going to over pay him? The Yankees because they flat out can. With that signing, they could now prep Hughes or Joba as the replacement for Mariano when he decides to walk into the sun light, and it gives them the flexibility to flat out run the table for a long time. I just don’t think the Yankees are going to stand pat this offseason. With the talent just not as good as prior years, teams are going to have to make trades to get significantly better because even the bigger market teams don’t have a ton of green paper this winter. The Yankees always have the money so they’ll continue to be the school yard bully.

They’re offense is going to be just as good next year as it was last year. They could bring in Harry Potter to play left field and he’ll hit 25 homers in that bandbox. There’s a strong chance they could go after Jason Bay or Matt Holliday because well again….why not? Money grows on trees in New York and frankly- they don’t care.  Regardless of what they’ll do- they’ll make a splash somehow. They’re the Yankees and there is no way they’ll let Boston outspend them. I definitely am picturing John Lackey and either Matt Holliday or Jason Bay ending up in New York this winter.