Now, I have a hard time believing this is a real rumor at all, since almost everyone involved has come out and said it is completely false, but just for the sake of argument, let’s take a look at how this trade could work for the Cardinals and Phillies.

Albert Pujols is pretty easily the best baseball player in the world, but Ryan Howard is no slouch. Here’s how they compare in different aspects of the game.

Offense

Pujols is obviously a beast. He has a career .416 wOBA, and has had a wOBA over .450 three times. Fantastic. He has been worth over 70 runs with the bat in each of the last two seasons. His wRC+ has never been lower than 152, with his career average being 173 (wRC+ is set up so that 100 is average and any number above or below 100 is that percent above/below average. So, a wRC+ of 101 means the player would be 1% better than average).

For those that are less sabermetrically inclined, Pujols’ traditional Triple Crown stats have averaged 41 HR, 124 RBI, and a .334 AVG in his nine major league seasons.

Simply put; he’s the best.

Howard, however, is no pushover at the plate. He’s posted a career .396 wOBA crossing the .400 wOBA mark once, in 2006. His batting values have been fairly sporadic through his career, thus far, but he’s had a 141 wRC+ for his career. Obviously, he’s a far cry from the level Pujols is, but he’s a very productive offensive player.

His Triple Crown stats look like 37 HR, 107 RBI, and a .279 AVG for his career.

Defense

Pujols is touted as one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball, and for good reason. Although his last two seasons have shown decline from his 2007 season, in which he posted an 18.8 UZR. That’s almost two full wins of defense, alone. His 2009 UZR was an unimpressive 1.3 runs, but he’s got the tools and the determination to be among the best in the league, once again.

Defense has never been Howard’s strong suit, but in the past few years he’s turned himself into a decent first baseman. In 2008, he posted his career high 2.8 UZR, which is probably his ceiling going forward.

Baserunning

Pujols tends to put up a surprising amount of stolen bases each year, but his baserunning in general is about average. Baseball Prospectus has a statistic called EQBRR, which stands for Equivalent Base Running Runs and is a combination of stolen bases and different types of base advancement. Pujols has been around 0 for his career, with some seasons above and some below average.

Howard’s baserunning ability is easily his most limited skill. He’s posted EQBRR numbers under -3 for most of his career.

Pujols is obviously the superior player. The question becomes one of money. Howard is due to make $7 million more than Pujols is over the next two years, but Pujols will undoubtedly command more money than Howard on an extension. If the Cardinals thought they couldn’t afford Pujols, or that they didn’t want to risk plunking almost 40% of their payroll on him and Holliday with a fairly weak farm system behind them, they may actually entertain trading for Howard. The money they would save could help in fielding a good team around Howard, something that might not be possible if Pujols gets $30 million per year, like some think he will.

Personally, I wouldn’t make the deal unless I was assured that ownership wouldn’t raise payroll to acomodate the new extension. If two players are taking up between 30 and 40% of the payroll space, it’s hard to imagine fielding a successful team around them unless you have strong support in the minor league system. Cardinals fans, I’m sorry, but your farm system just isn’t that system right now. In fact, Beyond The Box Score just ranked the Cardinals’ farm system dead last in the majors. Now, I don’t agree with that assessment since the Astros are worse off by a pretty wide margin, but the Cardinals are in the discussion.

My conclusion is that it might behoove the Cardinals to try to move Pujols given the right situation

Catcher

• Phillies: Carlos Ruiz. Carlos Ruiz is your prototypical defensive catcher whom you don’t really care about offensively, as long as he calls a good game for your pitching staff and shuts the running game down. However, Ruiz has actually had a decent postseason less far, but I would be surprised if that continues against the Yankee Power arms.
• Yankees: Jorge Posada. Jorge Posada is one of the best offensive catchers in the game still, and had a solid year. He’s been just as solid in the postseason and with his experience, I have a hard time believing he’ll be a non factor. The main question is going to be, will Joe Girardi go to him when it’s AJ Burnett’s time to take the mound? Regardless, this guy has to get his AB’s

Edge- Yankees

First Basemen

• Phillies: Ryan Howard. Ryan Howard is obviously one of the biggest threats in baseball. He’s had another MVP type campaign and followed it up with the MVP in the NLCS with a monster series against Joe Torre’s Dodgers. With that said, Howard has a mountain of a task seeing as he has to face CC Sabathia at least twice. That’s no easy task for anyone.
• Yankees: Mark Teixeira. Teixeira has had a postseason to forget so far, but I’m sure Yankee fans will forgive him if they can celebrate a World Series Title. He came to New York with high expectations and could be the front runner for the AL MVP, however he’s had a miserable postseason. He could be the key for a title or a choke. Being he’s a switch hitter, he’s gonna have the advantage over Howard due to pitching matchups. He’s also much more solid with the glove so at least he’ll save some runs if he doesn’t create them

Edge- Yankees

Second Basemen

• Phillies: Chase Utley. Utley came back from hip surgery with out any problem and had another 30 home run season. He’s been a mainstay in the middle of the order and has had a nice postseason, but he’s going to have the same problems Howard has dealing with the best left hander in baseball- CC Sabathia. If anyone is up to that task, its Chase Utley. The man can flat out rake.
• Yankees: Robinson Cano. Not many teams can say they have a hitter like Cano hitting 6th and 7th in the order, and that’s a testament to how good the Yankee lineup is. Cano has had a real fine postseason and has been even better with the glove. However, he’s gotta face a couple tough lefties himself so it’s not gonna be an easy task for Mr. Cano to have a big series.

Edge- Phillies

Shortstop

• Phillies: Jimmy Rollins. Not an easy season for the former MVP. He got off to a slow start, and quite possibly was the most unlucky hitter in all of baseball (horrrrrrrible BABIP). He has to be the jump starter this series, getting on base, and stealing bases like he’s never done before. If he struggles, the Phillies will NOT repeat.
• Yankees: Derek Jeter. What can I say about Derek Jeter? He’s one of the most clutch hitters in the history of the postseason and is arguably the best on/off the field leader in the history of baseball. His teammates look to him to lead and he does it. He’s a sure first ballot Hall of Famer, and I can see the captain having a big series getting on base for the meat of the order.

Edge- Yankees

Third Base

• Phillies: Pedro Feliz. Not the worst option in the world, but certain not the best. Feliz has seemingly forgotten how to hit home runs, and now would be a good time to remember. Being one of the only power right handed bats on the team, I suspect him needing to pick up the load against the powerful lefties of the Yankees. If so, it would take alot of pressure off Utley, Howard, Ibanez.
• Yankees: Alex Rodriguez. ARod has had a postseason to remember. He’s mashed and he’s been clutch. Who said Arod couldn’t hit in October? Watching Jeter, Arod, and Teixeira celebrate together on the diamond was an amazing sight to see and I’m happy for the guy. He’s been through a lot off the field (to his own fault), but he’s still one of the best and most feared right handed hitters in the history of baseball.

Edge- Yankees

Left Field

• Phillies: Raul Ibanez. Ibanez’s contract was suspect coming into the season, and now a lot of teams are surely wishing they gave him what he wanted. He had a 30 home run season hitting in the middle of the order and definitely cannot be overlooked. However, Ibanez is left handed and even though he’s had a good showing against left handers, CC Sabathia is another beast. Defensively he’s not very good, so he’s gonna have to pick it up if he wants to contribute.
• Yankees: Johnny Damon. Damon had a terrible ALDS, and a better ALCS. Which Damon is gonna show up in the World Series? It could be his last games as a Yankee so you know he’s going to want to go out with a bang, and show why he should be resigned. He’s gonna have to go through Cliff Lee and last year’s hero Cole Hamels to do it though. When on base, he’s gotta run. A single run can win a CC/Lee matchup so a SB could be key. Dave Roberts 2004 scenario coming up?

Edge- Even

Centerfield

• Phillies: Shane Victorino. The Flyin’ Hawaiian could be a nuisance on the bases if he does get on base. He’s going to have to do everything he can to disrupt the rhythm of the Yankee staff. He has the ability to hit the home run as well as the gaps, so he could be a sleeper in terms of production. He’s pretty darn good in center with an above average arm so it’ll be tough for the Yanks to take the extra base on him.
• Yankees: Melkey Cabrera. Melkey briefly lost his job to Brett Gardner earlier this year, but was able to make a little run and take it back when Gardner was DL’d. He hit .391 with 4 RBI’s out of the 9 hole which is pretty darn good if you ask me. If he can hit .300 this series, you can call it a success.

Edge- Phillies

Right Field

• Phillies: Jayson Werth. What a wonderful story Werth has been this year. He’s virtually come out of nowhere and was an all star this season. He’s an outstanding defensive right fielder with a extremely powerful right arm. He can hit the long ball with the best of them, and with Feliz, the Phillies need him to produce against CC Sabathia. He’s also had a nice postseason away from the band box in Philly, so he probably won’t be affected by the glimmer of New York.
• Yankees: Nick Swisher. The Swish has had a real bad postseason. Any production from him in the series is going to be considered better than his production in the past 2. Being a swish hitter (gotta like that!), he’s going to have the advantage, and if Swish breaks out- look out Philly.

Edge- Phillies

Starting Pitching

• Phillies: Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Pedro Martinez, Joe Blanton. The Phillies after Cliff Lee have been decent to subpar. Cole Hamels hasn’t nearly been the same Cole Hamels of last year, and he gives up a ton of homers. Against the powerful lineup of the Yankees in two hitter’s parks- he could end up with a sprained neck just as easily as throwing the shutout. Pedro is not the Pedro of old, while only making a handful of starts this year. Are you really going to trust him to the point of 7 innings of no run baseball? Pretty unfair if you ask me. Joe Blanton could be the key guy in this series if Manuel goes to him game 3. He’s familiar with the Yankee lineup, and picked up some experience last year. Cliff Lee is going to have to put this team on his back with at least 2 starts. You can’t trust the back 3 against the opposing lineup, which adds to the pressure. The only way the Phillies win this series is if Lee can snag 2 or even 3 wins. If anyone can do it- Cliff Lee can.
• Yankees: CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte. CC Sabathia has been flat out dirty this postseason, and Andy just set the record for most wins ever in the postseason. The main question is going to be, which AJ Burnett shows up. AJ has some of the best pure stuff in baseball, and if he locates while having the fastball and curveball going? It’s going to be a long night for Philly. CC is going to get a guaranteed 2 starts and possibly 3, so you know he’s going to bring his “A” game. Pettitte obviously won’t be overlooked with his track record, and the Phillies are left handed hitter dominant so he’s got the edge in game 3 at Philly.

Edge- Yankees

Bullpen

• Phillies:  Brad Lidge was brutal this year, but has seemingly found the magic this postseason. He HAS TO SLAM THE DOOR SHUT, when/if his number is called in a save situation. A blown save is going to bury the Phillies. Ryan Madson has looked a little tired to me this postseason. He carried a ton of innings for an overworked bullpen this year, but when on can be lights out. Power arms are really good to have in the pen come the postseason and the Phillies have them.
• Yankees:  Mariano Rivera is the best closer in the history of baseball. He can litterally make games 6 innings long for teams and is the best weapon to have. If Phil Hughes and Joba can be lights out in the 7th and 8th innings knowing Mariano can easily get a 4, 5 out save- this series is going to be over quickly. Joe Girardi has plenty of wiggle room here.

Edge- Yankees

Manager

• Phillies: Charlie Manuel. Charlie is back and feeling confident. He’s got the experience and has the Phillies playing at their highest levels. It’s hard not to like him and the support he has from the front office is extremely important. He’ll have his team pumped up.
• Yankees: Joe Girardi. Joe has taken some heat this postseason and I find that unfair. It’s his first postseason and first World Series, but no one has been more ready for the lights and lasers.

Advantage- Phillies

Wild Card

• Phillies:  Ben Francisco. It’s not out of realm of possibility Ben is called upon against the left handed pitching whether it be as a starter or pinch hitter. If he can come through- it’ll make Charlie look like a genius.
• Yankees:  Hideki Matsui. Matsui is going to be used only in Yankee Stadium so the home games are going to be vastly important. If he’s cleaning up ARod and Tex- the Yankees are going to roll.

Brett’s Prediction? Yankees in 6.